Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars face Tennessee Titans in Week 10 at Nissan Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Jacksonville Jaguars enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.7 points scored and 17.3 allowed.
Tennessee Titans enter with a 1-5 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 14.0 points scored and 21.5 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Jacksonville Jaguars’s 25.7 points per game against a Tennessee Titans defense allowing 21.5. In the other direction, Tennessee Titans average 14.0 against Jacksonville Jaguars’s 17.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Jacksonville Jaguars have injury designations to monitor: Montaric Brown (CB) — Questionable; Antonio Johnson (S) — Questionable; Ross Matiscik (LS) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Tennessee Titans have injury designations to monitor: Kevin Winston Jr. (S) — Questionable; Tony Adams (S) — Questionable; Dorian Mausi (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Tennessee Titans are Home field / environment; OL vs DL matchup.
The strongest model adjustments toward Jacksonville Jaguars are Starting QB efficiency; Record quality.
The current model leans toward JAX at 60.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Jacksonville Jaguars 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Tennessee Titans 1-5
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
JAXA Starting QB efficiency +2.0 Very Strong
Cam Ward (2026) 61.6% CMP / 5.6 Y/A / 2.3% TD / 2.3% INT / 75.0 RATE · Trevor Lawrence (2026) 65.2% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 7.6% TD / 2.2% INT / 106.2 RATE
JAXA Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
TEN 1-5 · JAX 4-2
TENH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
TEN home field | TEN 28 days / JAX 28 days
JAXA Early-down efficiency +0.53 Moderate
39% / 42% allowed | 47% / 44% allowed
JAXA Third-down efficiency +0.48 Strong
TEN OFF 34.8% / DEF 40.0% | JAX 47.9% / 36.2% | PBP 69%/44%/14% | 80%/56%/30%
JAXA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.48 Strong
47% / 55% allowed | 67% / 40% allowed
JAXA Explosive-play differential +0.44 Moderate
4% / 5% allowed | 7% / 7% allowed
JAXA Raw scoring differential +0.41 Moderate
TEN 14.0 PPG · JAX 25.7 PPG | TEN 21.5 PA/G · JAX 17.3 PA/G
TENH OL vs DL matchup +0.31 Weak
TEN OL sack 5.3% / DEF sack 7.8% | JAX 5.2% / 4.9%
TENH Recent form +0.30 Moderate
TEN W1 · JAX L1
JAXA Turnover differential +0.25 Moderate
TEN 1.3 GIVE / 0.8 TAKE | JAX 0.7 / 1.5
JAXA Schedule strength +0.23 Moderate
TEN 43% opp wins · JAX 54%
JAXA Run-game matchup +0.22 Weak
TEN 3.8 rush Y/A / 3.8 allowed | JAX 4.1 / 3.2 | PBP 87% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
TENH Pass defense +0.15 Weak
TEN 6.5 net Y/A / 69.1% CMP / 92.8 RATE | JAX 7.4 / 66.0% / 87.7
TENH Special teams efficiency +0.06 Weak
TEN FG 90.0% / NET PUNT 45.6 | JAX 83.3% / 43.3
TENH Game-script tendencies +0.06 Weak
51% neutral pass / 51 plays | 55% / 58
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