Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Miami Dolphins face Indianapolis Colts in Week 10 at Lucas Oil Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Miami Dolphins enter with a 0-5 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 14.0 points scored and 26.4 allowed. Their current streak is 5 losses.
Indianapolis Colts enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.0 points scored and 27.3 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
The scoring matchup puts Miami Dolphins’s 14.0 points per game against a Indianapolis Colts defense allowing 27.3. In the other direction, Indianapolis Colts average 24.0 against Miami Dolphins’s 26.4 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Miami Dolphins have injury designations to monitor: JuJu Brents (CB) — Questionable; Caleb Douglas (WR) — Questionable; Jonah Savaiinaea (G) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Indianapolis Colts have injury designations to monitor: Jaylon Carlies (LB) — Questionable; Sauce Gardner (CB) — Doubtful; Anthony Gould (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Indianapolis Colts are Home field / environment; Record quality.
The strongest model adjustments toward Miami Dolphins are Schedule strength; Run-game matchup.
The current model leans toward IND at 58.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Miami Dolphins 0-5
- 🏈 Record: Indianapolis Colts 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
INDH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
IND home field | IND 28 days / MIA 35 days
INDH Record quality +0.67 Strong
IND 2-4 · MIA 0-5
INDH Early-down efficiency +0.56 Moderate
44% / 45% allowed | 33% / 46% allowed
MIAA Schedule strength +0.50 Very Strong
IND 51% opp wins · MIA 82%
MIAA Run-game matchup +0.50 Moderate
IND 4.0 rush Y/A / 4.8 allowed | MIA 4.9 / 3.7 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
INDH Recent form +0.45 Moderate
IND L2 · MIA L5
INDH OL vs DL matchup +0.44 Weak
IND OL sack 6.4% / DEF sack 5.0% | MIA 9.7% / 2.7%
INDH Pass defense +0.37 Weak
IND 6.9 net Y/A / 61.4% CMP / 98.2 RATE | MIA 7.4 / 76.6% / 115.0
INDH Game-script tendencies +0.24 Weak
55% neutral pass / 63 plays | 45% / 51
INDH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.22 Weak
63% / 61% allowed | 46% / 64% allowed
INDH Special teams efficiency +0.18 Moderate
IND FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 44.2 | MIA 77.8% / 39.6
MIAA Explosive-play differential +0.17 Weak
6% / 6% allowed | 6% / 5% allowed
INDH Raw scoring differential +0.14 Weak
IND 24.0 PPG · MIA 14.0 PPG | IND 27.3 PA/G · MIA 26.4 PA/G
INDH Third-down efficiency +0.14 Weak
IND OFF 37.3% / DEF 30.4% | MIA 41.3% / 51.7% | PBP 64%/45%/11% | 70%/70%/23%
INDH Starting QB efficiency +0.11 Weak
Daniel Jones (2026) 59.6% CMP / 5.9 Y/A / 1.8% TD / 2.8% INT / 71.1 RATE · Malik Willis (2026) 56.2% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 1.5% TD / 3.1% INT / 68.4 RATE
MIAA Turnover differential +0.03 Weak
IND 1.8 GIVE / 0.5 TAKE | MIA 1.6 / 0.8
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