Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
New England Patriots face Detroit Lions in Week 10 at FC Bayern Munich Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
New England Patriots enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.7 points scored and 18.8 allowed. Their current streak is 3 wins.
Detroit Lions enter with a 3-2 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 32.8 points scored and 29.6 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts New England Patriots’s 22.7 points per game against a Detroit Lions defense allowing 29.6. In the other direction, Detroit Lions average 32.8 against New England Patriots’s 18.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
New England Patriots have injury designations to monitor: Ben Brown (C) — Doubtful; A.J. Brown (WR) — Questionable; Carlton Davis III (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Detroit Lions have injury designations to monitor: Rock Ya-Sin (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Detroit Lions are Home field / environment; Starting QB efficiency.
The strongest model adjustments toward New England Patriots are Explosive-play differential; Recent form.
The current model leans toward DET at 55.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: New England Patriots 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Detroit Lions 3-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
DETH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
DET home field | DET 35 days / NE 28 days
DETH Starting QB efficiency +0.87 Moderate
Jared Goff (2026) 67.0% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 6.3% TD / 0.0% INT / 111.3 RATE · Drake Maye (2026) 63.9% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 6.0% TD / 3.8% INT / 92.8 RATE
NEA Explosive-play differential +0.57 Moderate
6% / 8% allowed | 6% / 5% allowed
DETH Key injury availability +0.50 Weak
DET 0 unavailable starters · NE 1
DETH Early-down efficiency +0.48 Moderate
51% / 48% allowed | 43% / 45% allowed
NEA Recent form +0.30 Moderate
DET W1 · NE W3
NEA Third-down efficiency +0.30 Moderate
DET OFF 37.3% / DEF 50.7% | NE 40.5% / 37.1% | PBP 44%/63%/24% | 62%/38%/31%
DETH Game-script tendencies +0.30 Moderate
58% neutral pass / 63 plays | 51% / 61
DETH OL vs DL matchup +0.26 Weak
DET OL sack 5.4% / DEF sack 8.6% | NE 5.5% / 6.8%
NEA Schedule strength +0.19 Moderate
DET 49% opp wins · NE 58%
DETH Turnover differential +0.17 Moderate
DET 0.2 GIVE / 1.0 TAKE | NE 2.2 / 1.2
NEA Record quality +0.13 Weak
DET 3-2 · NE 4-2
DETH Special teams efficiency +0.13 Weak
DET FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 44.4 | NE 80.0% / 44.1
DETH Run-game matchup +0.11 Weak
DET 4.4 rush Y/A / 4.2 allowed | NE 4.2 / 3.9 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 78% stuff avoided
NEA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.10 Weak
77% / 76% allowed | 56% / 50% allowed
NEA Pass defense +0.09 Weak
DET 6.4 net Y/A / 68.1% CMP / 106.3 RATE | NE 6.1 / 66.1% / 90.3
NEA Raw scoring differential +0.08 Weak
DET 32.8 PPG · NE 22.7 PPG | DET 29.6 PA/G · NE 18.8 PA/G
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