NHL Final Intelligence
San Jose Sharks 3, Dallas Stars 4 — Recap
· American Airlines Center · Recap published · View Preview
Game Recap
The Dallas Stars defeated the San Jose Sharks 4-3, fulfilling SportsFBI's pregame model lean of 79% for Dallas as the visitors improved their record to 9-5-2 while San Jose dropped to 7-10-1. Dallas outshot San Jose 30-23, overcoming an early deficit sparked by Michael Misa's opening goal for the Sharks at 7:22 of the first period, assisted by Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith. The Stars quickly seized control with three unanswered goals in the opening frame, beginning when Roope Hintz scored at 9:16 from Wyatt Johnston and Thomas Harley. Jamie Benn followed at 15:17 with a helper from Hintz, and Jason Robertson extended the Dallas lead to 3-1 at 16:51 off passes from Mikko Rantanen and Harley.
San Jose trimmed the deficit early in the second period when Ivar Stenberg scored at 2:47 with assists from Celebrini and Eric Pohlkamp. However, Dallas restored its two-goal cushion at 14:30 of the second when Harley lit the lamp, capitalizing on assists from Johnston and Rantanen to cap a three-point night. The Sharks responded before the intermission as Will Smith scored at 17:02, assisted by Mason Marchment and Celebrini, who finished the contest with three assists.
Goaltender Jake Oettinger turned aside 19 of 22 shots to secure the win for Dallas, while Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 26 of 30 shots for San Jose. Neither team could find the back of the net in a scoreless third period, leaving the second-period scoring tallies to hold up as the deciding margin. The victory brings Dallas to nine wins on the campaign, while San Jose absorbs its tenth regulation defeat.
How the Prediction Fared
Before puck drop, DraftKings favored the Dallas Stars (-290, 74% implied) over the San Jose Sharks.
SportsFBI's model, locked before puck drop, favored the Dallas Stars (79% confidence). It gave a 45% chance of a 3+ goal margin; the game was decided by 1 goal.
💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line
Standouts
Every skater's and goalie's line is in the box score below.
📊 Game Flow
- P1 7:22 Michael Misa (Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith) SJS · snap shot · SJS 1, DAL 0
- P1 9:16 Roope Hintz (Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley) DAL · Power play · snap shot · SJS 1, DAL 1
- P1 15:17 Jamie Benn (Roope Hintz) DAL · snap shot · SJS 1, DAL 2
- P1 16:51 Jason Robertson (Mikko Rantanen, Thomas Harley) DAL · Power play · snap shot · SJS 1, DAL 3
- P2 2:47 Ivar Stenberg (Macklin Celebrini, Eric Pohlkamp) SJS · snap shot · SJS 2, DAL 3
- P2 14:30 Thomas Harley (Wyatt Johnston, Mikko Rantanen) DAL · Power play · slap shot · SJS 2, DAL 4
- P2 17:02 Will Smith (Mason Marchment, Macklin Celebrini) SJS · Power play · snap shot · SJS 3, DAL 4
Biggest Period
The Dallas Stars scored 3 goals in P1 — the biggest single period of the game.
📋 Team Stats
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 11 | 10 | 2 | 23 |
| DAL | 14 | 9 | 7 | 30 |
🎯 Shot Map
- 3Goals8% of attempts
- 20Saved56% of attempts
- 13Missed the net36% of attempts
- 4Goals8% of attempts
- 26Saved54% of attempts
- 18Missed the net38% of attempts
● goal (large) · ● saved · ✕ missed the net; blocked shots are not located. Each team attacks to the right.
🏒 Box Score
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 27:10 |
| Will Smith | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:49 |
| Ivar Stenberg | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18:07 |
| Michael Misa | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15:35 |
| Mason Marchment | L | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 18:35 |
| Eric Pohlkamp | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 14:44 |
| Darnell Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 21:52 |
| Jacob Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 19:34 |
| Michael Kesselring | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17:36 |
| Kiefer Sherwood | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16:21 |
| Sam Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:56 |
| Collin Graf | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:43 |
| Tyler Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 15:36 |
| Dmitry Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:42 |
| Ty Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 11:40 |
| Barclay Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 09:25 |
| Adam Gaudette | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 08:54 |
| Filip Bystedt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 04:43 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic | — | 26 | 30 | 86.7 | 4 | 58:29 |
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | +/- | SOG | HIT | BLK | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Harley | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 23:53 |
| Roope Hintz | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15:33 |
| Wyatt Johnston | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18:34 |
| Mikko Rantanen | R | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 |
| Jason Robertson | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17:20 |
| Jamie Benn | L | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 13:52 |
| Esa Lindell | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 25:19 |
| Tyler Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 19:51 |
| Lian Bichsel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 18:14 |
| Arttu Hyry | R | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 16:08 |
| Sam Steel | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:27 |
| Nils Lundkvist | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14:42 |
| Justin Hryckowian | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13:57 |
| Joel Kiviranta | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12:16 |
| Tyler Seguin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 |
| Radek Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 11:46 |
| Trey Taylor | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 09:36 |
| David Perron | L | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 08:26 |
| Player | Dec | SV | SA | SV% | GA | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | — | 19 | 22 | 86.4 | 3 | 59:05 |
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