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MLB Matchup Intelligence

KC vs
STL

Kansas City Royals vs St. Louis Cardinals

May 16, 2026 ยท 2:15 PM ET ยท Busch Stadium
KC 69-93  ยท  STL 77-85

๐Ÿ Final: KC 2, STL 4 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† St. Louis Cardinals
Confidence 72%
Projected Score STL 5 ยท KC 2
Blowout Probability 14%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

STL Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL SP quality edge (FIP 4.13 vs 4.64) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL KC SP fatigued โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
KC Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
KC Defensive edge (dWAR 3.0) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL Recent run diff (+1.1 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
KC SP road mastery (ERA 3.68 R vs 5.02 H) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
STL Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

KC โ€” Away LHP
Noah Cameron
Noah Cameron
ERA4.11
WHIP1.23
FIP3.84
K/98.0
K/BB5.1
Road ERA: 3.68
vs
STL โ€” Home RHP
Kyle Leahy
Kyle Leahy
ERA3.66
WHIP1.34
FIP3.49
K/98.5
K/BB5.9
Home ERA: 3.44

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

KC โ€” Away
  1. 1 Maikel Garcia 3B
  2. 2 Bobby Witt Jr. SS
  3. 3 Vinnie Pasquantino 1B
  4. 4 Salvador Perez DH
  5. 5 Carter Jensen C
  6. 6 Jac Caglianone RF
  7. 7 Player #257485 LF
  8. 8 Michael Massey 2B
  9. 9 Kyle Isbel CF
STL โ€” Home
  1. 1 Masyn Winn SS
  2. 2 Ivan Herrera DH
  3. 3 Jordan Walker RF
  4. 4 Alec Burleson 1B
  5. 5 Jose Fermin 3B
  6. 6 Thomas Saggese 2B
  7. 7 Nathan Church LF
  8. 8 Pedro Pages C
  9. 9 Victor Scott II CF

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

KC Away STL Home
Team OPS 0.735 0.673
Bullpen FIP 5.44 3.97
Run Diff / 10G -0.8 +0.3
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 1 -4

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines

Spread
KC +1.5 (+286)
STL -1.5 (-413)
Total (O/U)
Over 6.5 (+280)
Under 6.5 (-402)
Moneyline
KC +880
STL -2600

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 1 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

KC โ€” Away
Noah Cameron Noah Cameron SP
Outs
15.5
56 ยท OVER
STL โ€” Home
Kyle Leahy Kyle Leahy SP
Pitcher Ks
3.5
52 ยท OVER

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

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