โ† MLB

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets

July 31, 2026 ยท 7:10 PM ET ยท Citi Field
MIA 56-55  ยท  NYM 47-64

๐Ÿ Final: MIA 5, NYM 2 This preview reflects the pregame matchup. View Full Recap โ†’

๐Ÿ“Matchup Preview

The Miami Marlins and New York Mets renew their NL East rivalry tonight, with the Miami Marlins sending Janson Junk to the mound behind a 4.89 ERA. The New York Mets counter with Kodai Senga, who has struggled this season.

Janson Junk's 7.0 K/9 gives the Miami Marlins a meaningful advantage on the mound, as his ability to work around hard contact can limit the New York Mets, a lineup that has struggled to produce offense this season.

The Miami Marlins have also won their last game.

The market gives a slight edge to the New York Mets instead, pricing them at -131.

SportsFBI's outlook favors the Miami Marlins tonight, driven primarily by Janson Junk's pitching advantage and Miami Marlins' offensive composite. The Miami Marlins enter as the stronger overall matchup.

โšพ Pitching Edge: Miami Marlins
๐Ÿ“ˆ Market: NYM -131
๐Ÿ”ฅ Momentum: MIA W1

๐Ÿ† SportsFBI Verdict

Projected Winner ๐Ÿ† Miami Marlins
Confidence 59%
Projected Score MIA 5 ยท NYM 4
Blowout Probability 6%

Model-based estimate from BlowoutAlert's MLB matchup engine โ€” not a guarantee.

๐Ÿ“Š Engine Edges

NYM Home field โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA Key injuries NYM (Juan Soto) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Key injuries MIA (Max Meyer) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA SP quality edge (FIP 4.70 vs 9.46) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA Offensive composite (wOBA/xwOBA/matchup) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Recent run diff (+2.8 R/G L10) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM MIA SP home dependent โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
MIA Line move (41pp sharp) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…
NYM Bullpen edge (quality/availability) โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜… โ˜…

โšพ Starting Pitchers

MIA โ€” Away RHP
ERA4.89
WHIP1.36
FIP4.32
K/97.0
K/BB4.5
Road ERA: 5.36
vs
NYM โ€” Home RHP
ERA8.85
WHIP1.84
FIP6.78
K/911.0
K/BB4.3

๐Ÿงข Starting Lineup

๐Ÿ“ธ Team Snapshot

MIA Away NYM Home
Team OPS 0.767 0.674
Bullpen FIP 29.70 18.79
Run Diff / 10G -1.5 +1.3
Days Rest 0 0
Streak 1 -1

๐Ÿ“ˆ Betting Lines DraftKings

Spread
MIA -2.5 (-145)
NYM +2.5 (+111)
Total (O/U)
Over 8.5 (+117)
Under 8.5 (-152)
Moneyline
MIA -1220
NYM +610

๐Ÿ” Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Click a suspect for the full evidence breakdown. Full rankings, verdicts, sharp money signals, and live lineup tracking are in the workspace.

MIA โ€” Away
Liam Hicks Liam Hicks DH
Otto Lopez Otto Lopez SS
Kyle Stowers Kyle Stowers 1B
Griffin Conine Griffin Conine RF
NYM โ€” Home
Bo Bichette Bo Bichette 3B
Carson Benge Carson Benge RF
Francisco Lindor Francisco Lindor SS
A.J. Ewing A.J. Ewing LF

See the Full Analysis

All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges โ€” available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.