MLB Final Intelligence
San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins β Recap
July 24, 2026 Β· loanDepot park Β· View Preview
Game Recap
The San Diego Padres, entering play with a 53-53 record, visited the Miami Marlins (52-54) for a matchup where the home team was favored. Despite the pregame market implying a 56% chance for the Marlins, it was the underdog Padres who ultimately emerged victorious, securing a hard-fought 4-2 win. The contest featured multiple lead changes, with San Diego finally pulling ahead late to clinch the upset.
Miami drew first blood in the bottom of the second inning when Mack launched a 399-foot solo home run to right field, putting the Marlins up 1-0. The Padres answered in the top of the fourth, with Merrill hitting a sacrifice fly to right that allowed Machado to score, knotting the game at one apiece. San Diego then took its first lead in the top of the fifth inning when Machado singled to left, plating Bogaerts on an error by left fielder HernΓ‘ndez, and advancing himself to second while Cronenworth reached third. However, the Marlins quickly responded in the bottom of the frame, as HernΓ‘ndez redeemed himself by crushing a 423-foot solo blast to center, re-tying the game at 2-2. Marlins pitcher Ryan Gusto delivered a strong early performance, throwing 3.1 innings with 4 strikeouts and just 1 earned run.
With the game deadlocked heading into the late innings, it was Luis Rengifo who delivered the decisive blow for San Diego. In the top of the eighth inning, Rengifo sent a 361-foot two-run home run to right field, also scoring Bowen, to give the Padres a crucial 4-2 advantage. Rengifo's blast proved to be the final scoring play of the game, cementing his top batting performance of the night with his lone hit being the game-winning homer that drove in two runs. The Padres held on through the final frames, completing the upset victory and improving their record to 54-53.
How the Prediction Fared
Pregame, the market favored the Miami Marlins (-143, 56% implied) over the San Diego Padres. Final: the San Diego Padres won 4β2, pulling off the upset.
Player of the Game
Pitching
| Pitcher | Team | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gusto |
|
3.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4.50 |
| German Marquez |
|
2.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5.17 |
| Kyle Hart |
|
2.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5.21 |
| Lake Bachar |
|
1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3.52 |
| Wandy Peralta |
|
1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3.10 |
| Adrian Morejon W |
|
1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3.25 |
| Cade Gibson |
|
1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5.06 |
| Calvin Faucher |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4.78 |
| Mason Miller S |
|
1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.84 |
| John King |
|
0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2.43 |
| Michael Petersen |
|
0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.86 |
| Tyler Zuber L |
|
0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5.65 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez |
|
0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2.01 |
Batting
| Batter | Team | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heriberto Hernandez |
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Manny Machado |
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavier Edwards |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Ty France |
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luis Rengifo |
|
1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Mack |
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Griffin Conine |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakob Marsee |
|
3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Stowers |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Otto Lopez |
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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