Trail Blazers 118, Nuggets 110 — NBA Recap

📰Game Recap

The Portland Trail Blazers overcame an early double-digit deficit to defeat the Denver Nuggets 118-110, rallying after a slow start. The Nuggets opened strong, outscoring Portland 31-19 in the first quarter, with Jamal Murray leading Denver's initial surge. Murray eventually finished with 35 points, 5 rebounds, and 6 assists on 10-of-19 shooting, including four 3-pointers, establishing an early lead for Denver.

Portland began to chip away at Denver's advantage in the second quarter, posting 39 points to Denver's 35, narrowing the gap before halftime. The momentum continued for the Trail Blazers into the third quarter, where they outscored the Nuggets 27-21, further closing the deficit. Deni Avdija was instrumental in Portland's resurgence, contributing 28 points, 3 rebounds, and 5 assists, hitting two 3-pointers on 10-of-22 shooting. Nikola Jokic provided consistent offense for Denver with 26 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists, making two 3-pointers on 10-of-22 shooting.

The Trail Blazers completed their comeback and secured the victory in the final period, outscoring Denver 33-23. Donovan Clingan anchored Portland's effort in the paint, recording a double-double with 17 points and 18 rebounds, along with 3 assists. Damian Lillard added 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists for Portland, including one 3-pointer on 5-of-11 shooting. The pregame analytical model by SportsFBI had leaned toward a Denver victory at 67%, a prediction that did not materialize as Portland's second-half surge proved decisive.

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How the Prediction Fared

⚡ Model Missed

SportsFBI's model, locked before tip-off, favored the Denver Nuggets (67% confidence). It gave a 15% chance of a 20+ point margin; the game was decided by 8 points.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Spread · DEN -4.5 POR covered Won by 8

Total · 231.5 Under 228 combined

Moneyline POR +142 · DEN -168 DEN favored

Line movementOpening line → close

Spread (DEN) -4.5-4.5 No move

Total 229.5231.5 +2

Moneyline (DEN) -168-168 No move

Standouts

Top Scorer · DEN

Jamal Murray

35 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST, 4 3PM · 10-19 FG

Scoring · POR

Deni Avdija

28 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST, 2 3PM · 10-22 FG

Scoring · DEN

Nikola Jokic

26 PTS, 9 REB, 8 AST, 2 3PM · 10-22 FG

Season highs

Deni Avdija · Season-high 28 pointsDonovan Clingan · Season-high 18 reboundsJrue Holiday · Season-high 10 assists

Every player's line is in the box score below; the play-by-play is available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

📊 Game Flow

POR 9 largest lead Q4 2:18 (POR 108, DEN 99) · 8-0 run, Q2 4:55–Q2 4:09

DEN 14 largest lead Q2 11:37 (POR 19, DEN 33) · 10-0 run, Q2 7:46–Q2 5:40

Swings 3 lead changes Tied 5 times

Ahead for good: Chris Youngblood makes tip shot (Q4 9:13, POR 91, DEN 89).

Clutch timeEvery score of the final five minutes

Q4 4:22 Deni Avdija makes two point shotPOR · POR 103, DEN 99
Q4 3:34 Deni Avdija makes 1-foot reverse layupPOR · POR 105, DEN 99
Q4 2:18 Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR · POR 108, DEN 99
Q4 2:18 Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN · POR 108, DEN 102
Q4 1:57 Nikola Jokic makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)DEN · POR 108, DEN 104
Q4 1:43 Damian Lillard makes 16-foot fade away jump shot (Deni Avdija assists)POR · POR 110, DEN 104
Q4 1:18 Jamal Murray makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Cameron Johnson assists)DEN · POR 110, DEN 107
Q4 1:08 Toumani Camara makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)POR · POR 113, DEN 107
Q4 0:32 Deni Avdija makes 10-foot pullup jump shotPOR · POR 115, DEN 107
Q4 0:24 Nikola Jokic makes 27-foot three pointer (Jamal Murray assists)DEN · POR 115, DEN 110
Q4 0:21 Deni Avdija makes free throw 2 of 2POR · POR 116, DEN 110

Linescore

	1	2	3	4		T
POR	19	39	27	33		118
DEN	31	35	21	23		110

🧮 How They Scored

PORDEN

54Points in the paint44

13Fast-break points13

12Second-chance points7

18Points off turnovers13

36Bench points23

Four factorsHighlighted side won the factor

54.9%Effective FG%52.6%

13.6%Turnover %11.5%

42.9%Offensive rebound %22.0%

0.228Free-throw rate0.442

🎯 Shot Chart

Portland Trail Blazers43/92 FG

61%Restricted Area20 of 33
44%Paint (non-RA)7 of 16
50%Mid-Range1 of 2
50%Left Corner 32 of 4
60%Right Corner 33 of 5
31%Above-break 310 of 32

Denver Nuggets36/77 FG

64%Restricted Area14 of 22
62%Paint (non-RA)8 of 13
31%Mid-Range5 of 16
60%Left Corner 33 of 5
0%Right Corner 30 of 2
32%Above-break 36 of 19

● made · ✕ missed, from the official shot log.

Box Score

Portland Trail Blazers

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG	3PT	FT	+/-
Deni Avdija F	35	28	3	5	0	0	2	10-22	2-9	6-9	-7
Donovan Clingan C	32	17	18	3	0	4	2	8-16	1-3	0-0	+10
Toumani Camara F	31	9	5	1	0	0	4	3-8	3-7	0-0	0
Jrue Holiday G	31	17	8	10	1	1	2	7-11	3-4	0-0	+13
Damian Lillard G	30	20	6	6	1	0	2	5-11	1-5	9-10	+3
Scoot Henderson G	26	8	2	2	1	0	1	3-10	2-6	0-0	+4
Sidy Cissoko G	22	8	3	0	0	0	2	3-3	2-2	0-0	+2
Chris Youngblood G	16	7	2	1	0	0	0	2-6	1-5	2-2	+22
Robert Williams III C-F	15	2	6	2	0	0	1	1-4	0-0	0-0	-4
Vit Krejci G	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1-1	0-0	0-0	-3

Denver Nuggets

Player	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	FG	3PT	FT	+/-
Jamal Murray G	40	35	5	6	1	1	2	10-19	4-9	11-11	-4
Christian Braun G	37	14	3	3	2	0	1	4-7	1-2	5-6	+6
Nikola Jokic C	36	26	9	8	4	1	2	10-22	2-7	4-4	-3
Cameron Johnson F	34	7	4	2	2	0	3	2-5	1-3	2-2	-5
Aaron Gordon F	30	5	6	2	1	1	2	2-6	1-4	0-0	-14
DeMar DeRozan G	20	9	0	1	0	0	0	3-7	0-0	3-3	-9
Trevon Brazile F	18	6	5	1	2	0	1	3-3	0-0	0-2	+6
Marvin Bagley III F	12	6	4	0	1	0	1	2-6	0-1	2-4	-5
Tyus Jones G	8	2	0	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0	2-2	-6
Alpha Diallo G	6	0	1	0	0	0	0	0-1	0-0	0-0	-6

🔬 Advanced Stats

Portland Trail BlazersTS% true shooting · USG% usage · NET net rating · PIE player impact

Player	Role	MIN	PTS	TS%	USG%	NET	PIE
Deni Avdija	Starter	34:48	28	53.9	31.8	-6.7	11.3
Damian Lillard	Starter	30:03	20	64.9	23.0	+3.1	19.0
Donovan Clingan	Starter	32:19	17	53.1	22.8	+14.1	15.0
Toumani Camara	Starter	30:54	9	56.3	16.7	+4.0	0.0
Scoot Henderson	Starter	25:32	8	40.0	18.0	+5.4	3.4
Jrue Holiday	Bench	30:50	17	77.3	16.5	+18.2	17.4
Sidy Cissoko	Bench	22:19	8	133.3	8.6	+17.2	9.1
Chris Youngblood	Bench	15:27	7	50.9	17.5	+68.8	3.1
Robert Williams III	Bench	15:20	2	25.0	12.8	-11.8	7.6
Vit Krejci	Bench	2:29	2	100.0	14.3	-50.0	-22.2
Micah Potter	Bench	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Branden Carlson	Bench	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Hansen Yang	Bench	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Denver NuggetsTS% true shooting · USG% usage · NET net rating · PIE player impact

Player	Role	MIN	PTS	TS%	USG%	NET	PIE
Jamal Murray	Starter	39:28	35	73.4	29.5	-5.1	18.4
Nikola Jokic	Starter	35:50	26	54.7	31.3	-7.2	18.2
Christian Braun	Starter	36:57	14	72.6	12.8	+6.5	9.2
Cameron Johnson	Starter	33:38	7	59.5	11.8	-9.2	4.7
Aaron Gordon	Starter	30:24	5	41.7	11.3	-26.7	3.2
DeMar DeRozan	Bench	20:07	9	54.1	17.4	-21.4	6.1
Marvin Bagley III	Bench	12:10	6	38.7	34.6	-16.6	1.2
Trevon Brazile	Bench	17:36	6	77.3	12.5	+16.2	9.5
Tyus Jones	Bench	8:15	2	53.2	10.0	-39.9	10.0
Zeke Nnaji	Bench	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
DaRon Holmes II	Bench	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Bryce Hopkins	Bench	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Alpha Diallo	Bench	5:36	0	0.0	7.7	-29.4	-5.7

🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines

Player	Prop	Line	Actual	Result
Jamal Murray DEN	Points	22.5	35	Over
	Rebounds	4.5	5	Over
	Assists	5.5	6	Over
	3-pointers	2.5	4	Over
	Pts + Reb	27.5	40	Over
	Reb + Ast	10.5	11	Over
	Pts + Reb + Ast	33.5	46	Over
Deni Avdija POR	Points	22.5	28	Over
	Rebounds	7.5	3	Under
	Assists	6.5	5	Under
	3-pointers	1.5	2	Over
	Reb + Ast	13.5	8	Under
	Pts + Reb + Ast	35.5	36	Over
Nikola Jokic DEN	Points	24.5	26	Over
	Rebounds	11.5	9	Under
	Assists	9.5	8	Under
	3-pointers	1.5	2	Over
	Reb + Ast	21.5	17	Under
	Pts + Reb + Ast	46.5	43	Under
Damian Lillard POR	Points	20.5	20	Under
	Rebounds	3.5	6	Over
	Assists	4.5	6	Over
	3-pointers	3.5	1	Under
	Pts + Reb	24.5	26	Over
	Reb + Ast	8.5	12	Over
	Pts + Reb + Ast	29.5	32	Over
Donovan Clingan POR	Points	11.5	17	Over
	Rebounds	10.5	18	Over
	Assists	1.5	3	Over
	3-pointers	0.5	1	Over
	Reb + Ast	11.5	21	Over
	Pts + Reb + Ast	22.5	38	Over
Christian Braun DEN	Points	12.5	14	Over
	Rebounds	4.5	3	Under
	Assists	1.5	3	Over
	3-pointers	1.5	1	Under
	Pts + Reb	16.5	17	Over
	Reb + Ast	6.5	6	Under
	Pts + Reb + Ast	18.5	20	Over