NBA Final Intelligence

UTA 1-5
97 – 119
FINAL
SAS 4-2

Utah Jazz 97, San Antonio Spurs 119 — Recap

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📰Game Recap

The San Antonio Spurs established early control against the Utah Jazz, building an 11-point advantage in the first quarter with a 27-16 scoring edge. Dylan Harper spearheaded the Spurs' offensive effort with 17 points and 8 assists, supported by Stephon Castle, who contributed 16 points and 4 assists, and Keldon Johnson adding 15 points and 7 rebounds.

Utah found some offensive rhythm in the second quarter, outscoring San Antonio 33-32, but could not significantly cut into the deficit as the Spurs maintained their lead. However, San Antonio truly broke the game open in the third period, delivering a decisive 35-20 run that extended their lead to an insurmountable margin. Lauri Markkanen led the Jazz's scoring efforts throughout the game, finishing with 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 three-pointers, with Darryn Peterson adding 14 points and 6 assists.

Despite a 28-25 fourth-quarter advantage for Utah, the large deficit proved too much to overcome. The Spurs consistently found ways to score, demonstrating the offensive efficiency that likely informed SportsFBI's pregame model, which indicated an 87% probability of a San Antonio victory. San Antonio's balanced attack and strong defensive start proved too much for the Jazz to handle over four quarters.

#SanAntonioSpurs #UtahJazz #NBAGame #LauriMarkkanen #DylanHarper

How the Prediction Fared

✓ Model Hit

SportsFBI's model, locked before tip-off, favored the San Antonio Spurs (87% confidence). It gave a 32% chance of a 20+ point margin; the game was decided by 22 points.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Spread · SAS -16.5 SAS covered Won by 22
Total · 227.5 Under 216 combined
Moneyline UTA +660 · SAS -1000 SAS favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Spread (SAS) -16.5-16.5 No move
Total 231.5227.5 -4
Moneyline (SAS) -1350-1000 +350

Standouts

Top Scorer · UTA
Lauri Markkanen
22 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST, 4 3PM · 8-16 FG
Scoring · SAS
Dylan Harper
17 PTS, 7 REB, 8 AST, 1 3PM · 6-10 FG
Scoring · SAS
Stephon Castle
16 PTS, 5 REB, 4 AST, 2 3PM · 7-16 FG

Every player's line is in the box score below; the play-by-play is available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

📊 Game Flow

UTA 2 largest lead Q1 11:15 (UTA 2, SAS 0) · 9-0 run, Q4 5:13–Q4 4:05
SAS 26 largest lead Q4 10:42 (UTA 71, SAS 97) · 10-0 run, Q1 8:25–Q1 6:04
Swings 1 lead changes Tied 1 time

Ahead for good: Devin Vassell makes free throw flagrant 3 of 3 (Q1 10:49, UTA 2, SAS 3).

Linescore

1234 T
UTA 16332028 97
SAS 27323525 119

🧮 How They Scored

UTASAS
36Points in the paint52
9Fast-break points26
26Second-chance points20
16Points off turnovers16
40Bench points51
Four factorsHighlighted side won the factor
41.7%Effective FG%52.2%
9.4%Turnover %10.3%
27.9%Offensive rebound %20.0%
0.229Free-throw rate0.330

🎯 Shot Chart

Utah Jazz34/96 FG
Airious Bailey: missed 25 ftLauri Markkanen: made 15 ftLauri Markkanen: missed 17 ftKeyonte George: missed 25 ftKeyonte George: made 0 ftAirious Bailey: missed 24 ftDarryn Peterson: missed 24 ftKeyonte George: missed 12 ftDarryn Peterson: missed 9 ftLauri Markkanen: missed 15 ftSvi Mykhailiuk: missed 25 ftMo Bamba: missed 1 ftKeyonte George: missed 1 ftMo Bamba: made 0 ftSvi Mykhailiuk: missed 1 ftAirious Bailey: missed 24 ftAirious Bailey: missed 12 ftSvi Mykhailiuk: missed 1 ftJosh Green: missed 21 ftKeyonte George: made 6 ftDarryn Peterson: missed 17 ftLauri Markkanen: made 5 ftJaxson Hayes: made 1 ftLauri Markkanen: missed 25 ftDarryn Peterson: missed 8 ftSvi Mykhailiuk: made 25 ftLauri Markkanen: made 25 ftBrice Sensabaugh: missed 24 ftLauri Markkanen: made 25 ftBrice Sensabaugh: made 20 ftBrice Sensabaugh: missed 13 ftAirious Bailey: missed 22 ftJosh Okogie: made 22 ftAirious Bailey: missed 5 ftJaxson Hayes: made 0 ftJaxson Hayes: missed 1 ftAirious Bailey: made 25 ftBrice Sensabaugh: missed 25 ftKeyonte George: missed 6 ftKeyonte George: missed 24 ftJosh Okogie: missed 8 ftMo Bamba: missed 4 ftKeyonte George: missed 24 ftMo Bamba: made 0 ftKeyonte George: missed 24 ftAirious Bailey: missed 1 ftMo Bamba: made 0 ftLauri Markkanen: made 24 ftAirious Bailey: made 1 ftDarryn Peterson: missed 9 ftJaxson Hayes: missed 8 ftKeyonte George: missed 0 ftLauri Markkanen: missed 0 ftAirious Bailey: missed 14 ftKeyonte George: missed 9 ftJaxson Hayes: made 0 ftDarryn Peterson: made 9 ftJaxson Hayes: missed 6 ftDarryn Peterson: made 12 ftJaxson Hayes: missed 8 ftKeyonte George: made 24 ftAirious Bailey: missed 0 ftLauri Markkanen: made 24 ftSvi Mykhailiuk: missed 22 ftDarryn Peterson: made 10 ftLauri Markkanen: missed 15 ftSvi Mykhailiuk: missed 14 ftSvi Mykhailiuk: missed 23 ftLauri Markkanen: made 0 ftLauri Markkanen: missed 1 ftLauri Markkanen: made 0 ftDarryn Peterson: missed 9 ftBrice Sensabaugh: missed 25 ftDarryn Peterson: missed 25 ftJaxson Hayes: made 0 ftBrice Sensabaugh: missed 0 ftLauri Markkanen: missed 25 ftBrice Sensabaugh: missed 0 ftLauri Markkanen: missed 23 ftJaxson Hayes: missed 1 ftBrice Sensabaugh: missed 24 ftIsaiah Collier: made 14 ftBrice Sensabaugh: made 24 ftBrice Sensabaugh: missed 25 ftKyle Filipowski: missed 4 ftJosh Green: missed 25 ftDarryn Peterson: missed 8 ftDarryn Peterson: made 25 ftIsaiah Collier: made 0 ftJosh Green: made 24 ftDarryn Peterson: made 24 ftKyle Filipowski: missed 0 ftTony Bradley: made 1 ftIsaiah Collier: made 12 ftTony Bradley: missed 4 ftIsaiah Collier: missed 2 ft
  • 46%Restricted Area13 of 28
  • 25%Paint (non-RA)5 of 20
  • 29%Mid-Range4 of 14
  • 33%Left Corner 32 of 6
  • 25%Right Corner 31 of 4
  • 38%Above-break 39 of 24
San Antonio Spurs42/91 FG
Devin Vassell: missed 24 ftVictor Wembanyama: missed 25 ftDe'Aaron Fox: made 23 ftVictor Wembanyama: made 0 ftStephon Castle: missed 25 ftDevin Vassell: missed 1 ftVictor Wembanyama: missed 24 ftDe'Aaron Fox: made 1 ftStephon Castle: made 1 ftStephon Castle: made 11 ftDylan Harper: made 1 ftDevin Vassell: missed 12 ftStephon Castle: missed 25 ftDevin Vassell: made 1 ftDe'Aaron Fox: missed 4 ftDe'Aaron Fox: missed 1 ftLuke Kornet: made 1 ftVictor Wembanyama: made 15 ftDylan Harper: missed 4 ftVictor Wembanyama: missed 15 ftKeldon Johnson: made 24 ftDylan Harper: made 25 ftVictor Wembanyama: missed 15 ftStephon Castle: missed 1 ftDevin Vassell: made 15 ftVictor Wembanyama: missed 1 ftDylan Harper: missed 24 ftStephon Castle: missed 1 ftVictor Wembanyama: made 0 ftStephon Castle: missed 7 ftHarrison Barnes: missed 24 ftDevin Vassell: missed 25 ftLuke Kornet: made 0 ftDevin Vassell: missed 0 ftStephon Castle: made 25 ftDevin Vassell: made 10 ftDylan Harper: made 7 ftDevin Vassell: made 1 ftDylan Harper: made 1 ftJulian Champagnie: made 22 ftKeldon Johnson: made 0 ftVictor Wembanyama: missed 24 ftJulian Champagnie: missed 28 ftKeldon Johnson: made 0 ftVictor Wembanyama: missed 16 ftDe'Aaron Fox: made 1 ftStephon Castle: made 1 ftVictor Wembanyama: missed 24 ftDylan Harper: made 2 ftDe'Aaron Fox: made 8 ftDylan Harper: made 1 ftStephon Castle: missed 26 ftStephon Castle: made 0 ftStephon Castle: missed 26 ftJulian Champagnie: missed 25 ftJulian Champagnie: made 25 ftStephon Castle: missed 24 ftStephon Castle: made 1 ftDe'Aaron Fox: missed 4 ftDe'Aaron Fox: made 18 ftKeldon Johnson: made 5 ftVictor Wembanyama: missed 24 ftVictor Wembanyama: made 0 ftVictor Wembanyama: made 1 ftJulian Champagnie: missed 25 ftVictor Wembanyama: missed 7 ftDylan Harper: missed 13 ftHarrison Barnes: made 29 ftStephon Castle: missed 14 ftDylan Harper: missed 1 ftStephon Castle: made 27 ftJordan McLaughlin: missed 1 ftJordan McLaughlin: missed 25 ftKeldon Johnson: missed 1 ftLuke Kornet: made 0 ftKeldon Johnson: missed 1 ftCarter Bryant: missed 24 ftKeldon Johnson: missed 25 ftKeldon Johnson: made 5 ftCarter Bryant: missed 25 ftKeldon Johnson: missed 6 ftKeldon Johnson: missed 1 ftJordan McLaughlin: missed 1 ftTarris Reed Jr.: made 0 ftKeldon Johnson: missed 1 ftCarter Bryant: made 25 ftCarter Bryant: missed 1 ftHarrison Barnes: made 24 ftKeldon Johnson: missed 1 ftHarrison Barnes: made 23 ftJordan McLaughlin: missed 0 ft
  • 58%Restricted Area22 of 38
  • 36%Paint (non-RA)4 of 11
  • 50%Mid-Range5 of 10
  • 100%Left Corner 31 of 1
  • 17%Right Corner 31 of 6
  • 36%Above-break 39 of 25

● made · ✕ missed, from the official shot log.

Box Score

Utah Jazz

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
Darryn Peterson G 3314463315-132-42-2-4
Lauri Markkanen F 3122831008-164-72-2-23
Airious Bailey F 245621002-111-50-0-26
Jaxson Hayes C 229501214-90-01-1-5
Keyonte George G 227700033-121-50-0-30
Josh Okogie G 199321011-21-16-6+7
Mo Bamba C 188800213-50-02-3-21
Josh Green G 153100011-31-20-0-5
Svi Mykhailiuk G 143200001-71-40-0-15
Brice Sensabaugh F 147211022-101-62-2+3
Isaiah Collier G 127220013-40-01-2+3
Kyle Filipowski C 81200000-20-01-2+2
Tony Bradley C 72301001-20-00-2+4

San Antonio Spurs

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
Dylan Harper G 2717782026-101-24-5+16
Keldon Johnson F 2715710005-121-24-6-2
Stephon Castle G 2616540107-162-70-0+24
Devin Vassell G-F 2511211014-90-23-3+26
Victor Wembanyama F-C 24121151355-150-52-3+9
Julian Champagnie F 238600012-52-52-3+13
De'Aaron Fox G 2212231015-81-11-2+14
Harrison Barnes F 2113000003-43-44-4+8
Luke Kornet F-C 178520103-30-02-2+17
Carter Bryant F 143001111-41-30-0-9
Jordan McLaughlin G 80130000-40-10-0-2
Tarris Reed Jr. C 74700111-10-02-2-4

🔬 Advanced Stats

Utah JazzTS% true shooting · USG% usage · NET net rating · PIE player impact
PlayerRoleMINPTSTS%USG%NETPIE
Lauri Markkanen Starter 30:542265.221.8-34.815.7
Darryn Peterson Starter 32:471450.418.3-9.111.1
Jaxson Hayes Starter 22:21947.718.5-13.29.4
Keyonte George Starter 22:03729.225.9-60.01.6
Airious Bailey Starter 24:24522.717.5-48.13.4
Josh Okogie Bench 18:33997.012.8+13.016.3
Mo Bamba Bench 18:10863.314.0-48.012.8
Brice Sensabaugh Bench 14:15732.235.10.0-5.0
Isaiah Collier Bench 12:00771.723.1+16.716.9
Svi Mykhailiuk Bench 14:26321.417.9-45.7-6.1
Josh Green Bench 14:42350.010.5-9.5-1.2
Tony Bradley Bench 7:18234.717.6+26.79.8
Kyle Filipowski Bench 8:07117.416.7+18.80.0
Kobe Bufkin Bench 000.00.00.00.0
San Antonio SpursTS% true shooting · USG% usage · NET net rating · PIE player impact
PlayerRoleMINPTSTS%USG%NETPIE
Dylan Harper Starter 27:091769.723.0+32.022.7
Stephon Castle Starter 25:401650.025.8+44.214.6
De'Aaron Fox Starter 21:551267.620.4+34.99.6
Victor Wembanyama Starter 24:091236.839.6+19.911.5
Devin Vassell Starter 25:151153.316.4+45.07.5
Keldon Johnson Bench 26:301551.225.0+0.610.7
Harrison Barnes Bench 20:3213112.89.4+20.415.2
Luke Kornet Bench 16:338103.19.3+45.924.4
Julian Champagnie Bench 22:29863.313.2+24.75.1
Tarris Reed Jr. Bench 7:184106.415.8-26.727.5
Carter Bryant Bench 14:23337.514.3-27.7-6.8
Jordan McLaughlin Bench 8:0700.017.4-18.8-3.8

🎟️ Player Props Results Consensus lines

PlayerPropLineActualResult
Lauri Markkanen UTA Points19.522 Over
Rebounds5.58 Over
Assists1.53 Over
3-pointers2.54 Over
Pts + Reb + Ast26.533 Over
Dylan Harper SAS Points16.517 Over
Rebounds5.57 Over
Assists4.58 Over
3-pointers1.51 Under
Pts + Reb21.524 Over
Reb + Ast9.515 Over
Pts + Reb + Ast26.532 Over
Stephon Castle SAS Points16.516 Under
Rebounds5.55 Under
Assists5.54 Under
3-pointers1.52 Over
Pts + Reb21.521 Under
Reb + Ast11.59 Under
Pts + Reb + Ast27.525 Under
Keldon Johnson SAS Points9.515 Over
Rebounds4.57 Over
Darryn Peterson UTA Points13.514 Over
Rebounds3.54 Over
Assists2.56 Over
3-pointers1.52 Over
Pts + Reb16.518 Over
Reb + Ast6.510 Over
Pts + Reb + Ast20.524 Over
De'Aaron Fox SAS Points15.512 Under
Rebounds3.52 Under
Assists5.53 Under
3-pointers1.51 Under
Pts + Reb19.514 Under
Reb + Ast9.55 Under
Pts + Reb + Ast25.517 Under

The last pregame line, graded against the final box score.

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series UTA 0 – 2 SAS
Last 22 meetings · since 2020-21 UTA 10 – 12 SAS
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Utah Jazz 1-6 L5 L10 1-6 Next game recap: @ NOP · Wed, Nov 4
San Antonio Spurs 5-2 W5 L10 5-2 Next game: vs DAL · Wed, Nov 4

🔍 Key Suspects Results

2 of 4 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

UTA — Away
Airious Bailey F Threes 1.5 UNDER HIT Actual 1
Jaxson Hayes Jaxson Hayes C Assists 2 MISS Actual 0
SAS — Home
Stephon Castle Stephon Castle G Pts+Reb+Ast 27.5 OVER MISS Actual 25
Keldon Johnson Keldon Johnson F Rebounds 4 HIT Actual 7

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