Green Bay Packers Projected to Beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Preview & Odds

Matchup Analysis SportsFBI AI

The Green Bay Packers (1-2) are set to visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Raymond James Stadium in Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season. Both teams enter the matchup looking to overcome early-season struggles, with Green Bay having lost one straight game and Tampa Bay on a three-game losing streak. Both teams also face uncertainty with several players listed as Questionable; the Packers have Anthony Belton, Karl Brooks, Brandon Cisse, Edgerrin Cooper, and Javon Hargrave with that designation, while the Buccaneers list Yaya Diaby, Chris Godwin Jr., Bucky Irving, Jacob Parrish, and Josiah Trotter as Questionable.

SportsFBI's analytical model projects Green Bay as the favored side with 64% confidence, primarily driven by its assessment of "Key injury availability," which weighs significantly toward the Packers. Although the Buccaneers benefit from the home-field advantage at Raymond James Stadium, a factor accounted for in the model, Green Bay's slightly better record quality and recent form also contribute to their projected advantage. The betting market aligns with this directional lean, pricing the Packers at -125 on the moneyline, which implies approximately a 53% probability.

SportsFBI Model

Projects Green Bay Packers to win — 63% confidence

Market agrees (-6pp) Projected score:TB 17 · GB 22 Blowout chance (14+ margin): 31%

⚖️ Game Edges

Key factors driving this matchup

GBA Key injury availability +3.0 Very Strong

TB 2 unavailable starters · GB 0

TBH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate

TB home field | TB 7 days / GB 10 days

GBA OL vs DL matchup +0.56 Moderate

TB OL sack 11.3% / DEF sack 4.6% | GB 4.9% / 7.9%

GBA Record quality +0.50 Moderate

TB 0-3 · GB 1-2

TBH Run-game matchup +0.49 Moderate

TB 4.4 rush Y/A / 3.2 allowed | GB 3.2 / 4.2 | PBP 82% stuff avoided | 74% stuff avoided

TBH Schedule strength +0.38 Strong

TB 81% opp wins · GB 56%

GBA Recent form +0.30 Moderate

TB L3 · GB L1

GBA Pass defense +0.28 Weak

TB 6.3 net Y/A / 69.4% CMP / 94.7 RATE | GB 5.8 / 67.5% / 89.8

TBH Third-down efficiency +0.20 Weak

TB OFF 34.5% / DEF 32.7% | GB 26.1% / 48.2% | PBP 75%/25%/28% | 57%/27%/17%

GBA Explosive-play differential +0.16 Weak

6% / 5% allowed | 8% / 5% allowed

TBH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.13 Weak

30% / 38% allowed | 42% / 83% allowed

TBH Raw scoring differential +0.06 Weak

TB 19.0 PPG · GB 18.3 PPG | TB 24.0 PA/G · GB 26.3 PA/G

TBH Game-script tendencies +0.05 Weak

55% neutral pass / 54 plays | 63% / 58

GBA Turnover differential +0.04 Weak

TB 2.3 GIVE / 1.0 TAKE | GB 1.5 / 1.0

GBA Special teams efficiency +0.03 Weak

TB FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 38.1 | GB 85.7% / 45.6

TBH Early-down efficiency +0.02 Weak

39% / 38% allowed | 43% / 42% allowed

Betting Lines DraftKings

Spread

GB -2.5 (-5500)

TB +2.5 (+1340)

Total (O/U)

Over 31.5 (+690)

Under 31.5 (-1360)

Moneyline

GB -8800

TB +1520

🔍 Key Suspects Top 4 Preview

Top betting prop targets identified by the BlowOutAlert engine for this matchup. Full rankings, evidence breakdowns, and Hit Rate history are in the workspace.

GB — Away