NBA Final Intelligence

DAL 4-3
111 – 112
FINAL
SAS 5-2

Dallas Mavericks 111, San Antonio Spurs 112 — Recap

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📰Game Recap

Victor Wembanyama dominated the floor with 52 points and 24 rebounds on 16-of-28 shooting, propelling the San Antonio Spurs to a 112-111 victory over the Dallas Mavericks. San Antonio built its early advantage by taking the first quarter 32-26 and expanding the margin with a 36-25 second-quarter push, heading into halftime with a comfortable lead. Dylan Harper added 21 points and 5 rebounds on 9-of-15 shooting to support the offensive effort for the Spurs.

The Dallas Mavericks mounted a significant second-half comeback, outscoring San Antonio 29-22 in the third quarter and 31-22 in the fourth. Kyrie Irving led the Dallas charge with 29 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists, shooting 9-of-27 with five made three-pointers. Naji Marshall contributed 22 points and 5 rebounds on efficient 9-of-12 shooting, while P.J. Washington posted a double-double with 21 points and 10 rebounds.

Despite the late surge from Dallas, San Antonio's first-half cushion proved decisive as the Spurs held on by a single point. The final outcome validated the pregame analytics, as SportsFBI's model correctly identified San Antonio with a 74% win probability prior to tip-off.

#SanAntonioSpurs #DallasMavericks #VictorWembanyama #NBA

How the Prediction Fared

✓ Model Hit

SportsFBI's model, locked before tip-off, favored the San Antonio Spurs (74% confidence). It gave a 18% chance of a 20+ point margin; the game was decided by 1 point.

💵 Betting Result FanDuel closing line

Spread · SAS -12.5 DAL covered Won by 1
Total · 226.5 Under 223 combined
Moneyline DAL +440 · SAS -590 SAS favored
Line movementOpening line → close
Spread (SAS) -12.5-12.5 No move
Total 229.5226.5 -3
Moneyline (SAS) -670-590 +80

Standouts

Top Scorer · SAS
52 PTS, 24 REB, 2 AST, 1 3PM · 16-28 FG
Scoring · DAL
29 PTS, 7 REB, 5 AST, 5 3PM · 9-27 FG
Scoring · DAL
22 PTS, 5 REB, 3 AST, 3 3PM · 9-12 FG
Season highs
Victor Wembanyama · Season-high 52 pointsVictor Wembanyama · Season-high 24 reboundsNaji Marshall · Season-high 22 pointsP.J. Washington · Season-high 21 pointsStephon Castle · Season-high 10 reboundsCooper Flagg · Season-high 10 rebounds

Every player's line is in the box score below; the play-by-play is available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.

📊 Game Flow

DAL 3 largest lead Q4 5:38 (DAL 103, SAS 100) · 10-0 run, Q2 7:29–Q2 5:32
SAS 19 largest lead Q3 8:45 (DAL 54, SAS 73) · 12-0 run, Q1 1:03–Q2 11:21
Swings 6 lead changes Tied 4 times

Ahead for good: Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2 (Q4 0:24, DAL 111, SAS 112).

Clutch timeEvery score of the final five minutes
  • Q4 4:27 Dylan Harper makes driving layupSAS · DAL 103, SAS 105
  • Q4 4:20 Cooper Flagg makes free throw 2 of 2DAL · DAL 104, SAS 105
  • Q4 3:15 Victor Wembanyama makes 2-foot layup (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAS · DAL 104, SAS 107
  • Q4 2:54 Cooper Flagg makes 2-foot two point shot (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)DAL · DAL 106, SAS 107
  • Q4 2:39 Victor Wembanyama makes two point shotSAS · DAL 106, SAS 109
  • Q4 2:30 Kyrie Irving makes 10-foot two point shotDAL · DAL 108, SAS 109
  • Q4 1:47 Victor Wembanyama makes tip shotSAS · DAL 108, SAS 111
  • Q4 1:41 Naji Marshall makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL · DAL 111, SAS 111
  • Q4 0:24 Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2SAS · DAL 111, SAS 112

Linescore

1234 T
DAL 26252931 111
SAS 32362222 112

🧮 How They Scored

DALSAS
Four factorsHighlighted side won the factor
45.1%Effective FG%41.6%
6.6%Turnover %8.2%
31.6%Offensive rebound %40.7%
0.255Free-throw rate0.411

Box Score

Dallas Mavericks

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
Cooper Flagg F 40191050017-190-35-7+2
P.J. Washington F 39211030117-183-84-50
Kyrie Irving G 3629751019-275-146-8-4
Naji Marshall F 2622530129-123-31-1+5
Walter Clayton Jr. G 218650003-92-50-0+3
Caleb Martin F 200321000-00-00-0+2
Zaccharie Risacher F 182121011-40-20-0-7
Daniel Gafford F 182411221-60-00-1-4
Morez Johnson F 188311002-61-23-4+1
Marcus Sasser G 50120000-10-00-0-3

San Antonio Spurs

Player MINPTSREBASTSTLBLKTOFG3PTFT+/-
Dylan Harper G 3621500029-151-22-2+8
Devin Vassell G-F 362742100-80-52-2+2
Stephon Castle G 35171030026-202-93-4+1
Victor Wembanyama F-C 345224228116-281-819-23+23
De'Aaron Fox G 3310341133-100-24-4+12
Julian Champagnie F 210431000-60-50-0-4
Keldon Johnson F 194520021-50-32-2-13
Luke Kornet F-C 142120001-10-00-0-22
Harrison Barnes F 134200001-21-21-2-2

⚔️ Season Series & What's Next

2026-27 season series DAL 0 – 2 SAS
Last 25 meetings · since 2020-21 DAL 16 – 9 SAS
Previous meetingsOpen the recap
After this game
Dallas Mavericks 4-4 L2 L10 4-4 Next game: vs UTA · Fri, Nov 6
San Antonio Spurs 6-2 W6 L10 6-2 Next game: @ SAC · Fri, Nov 6

🔍 Key Suspects Results

6 of 8 graded picks hit. Pushes and voided picks are not counted.

DAL — Away
Kyrie Irving Kyrie Irving G Rebounds 3.5 OVER HIT Actual 7
Naji Marshall Naji Marshall F Points 10 HIT Actual 22
Daniel Gafford Daniel Gafford F Rebounds 7.5 UNDER HIT Actual 4
P.J. Washington P.J. Washington F Points 12.5 OVER HIT Actual 21
Zaccharie Risacher Zaccharie Risacher F Threes 1.5 UNDER HIT Actual 0
SAS — Home
Julian Champagnie Julian Champagnie F Pts+Reb 13.5 OVER MISS Actual 4
De'Aaron Fox G Assists 5.5 OVER MISS Actual 4
Keldon Johnson Keldon Johnson F Rebounds 4 HIT Actual 5

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