Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Chicago Bears face Miami Dolphins in Week 14 at Hard Rock Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Chicago Bears enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.0 points scored and 19.8 allowed.
Miami Dolphins enter with a 0-5 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 14.0 points scored and 26.4 allowed. Their current streak is 5 losses.
The scoring matchup puts Chicago Bears’s 25.0 points per game against a Miami Dolphins defense allowing 26.4. In the other direction, Miami Dolphins average 14.0 against Chicago Bears’s 19.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Chicago Bears have injury designations to monitor: T.J. Edwards (LB) — Questionable; Jonah Jackson (G) — Questionable; Tony Fields II (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Miami Dolphins have injury designations to monitor: JuJu Brents (CB) — Questionable; Caleb Douglas (WR) — Questionable; Jonah Savaiinaea (G) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Miami Dolphins are Home field / environment; Explosive-play differential.
The strongest model adjustments toward Chicago Bears are Record quality; Recent form.
The current model leans toward CHI at 58.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Chicago Bears 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Miami Dolphins 0-5
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
CHIA Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
MIA 0-5 · CHI 4-2
MIAH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
MIA home field | MIA 63 days / CHI 56 days
CHIA Recent form +0.90 Very Strong
MIA L5 · CHI W1
CHIA Starting QB efficiency +0.88 Moderate
Malik Willis (2026) 56.2% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 1.5% TD / 3.1% INT / 68.4 RATE · Caleb Williams (2026) 72.5% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 3.3% TD / 1.1% INT / 101.5 RATE
CHIA OL vs DL matchup +0.79 Moderate
MIA OL sack 9.7% / DEF sack 2.7% | CHI 6.7% / 9.4%
MIAH Explosive-play differential +0.64 Moderate
6% / 5% allowed | 6% / 8% allowed
MIAH Schedule strength +0.50 Very Strong
MIA 82% opp wins · CHI 54%
CHIA Pass defense +0.48 Moderate
MIA 7.4 net Y/A / 76.6% CMP / 115.0 RATE | CHI 7.1 / 62.6% / 99.9
CHIA Early-down efficiency +0.40 Weak
33% / 46% allowed | 43% / 45% allowed
CHIA Game-script tendencies +0.40 Moderate
45% neutral pass / 51 plays | 52% / 69
CHIA Raw scoring differential +0.38 Moderate
MIA 14.0 PPG · CHI 25.0 PPG | MIA 26.4 PA/G · CHI 19.8 PA/G
CHIA Third-down efficiency +0.28 Moderate
MIA OFF 41.3% / DEF 51.7% | CHI 45.5% / 25.8% | PBP 70%/70%/23% | 53%/60%/25%
CHIA Turnover differential +0.10 Weak
MIA 1.6 GIVE / 0.8 TAKE | CHI 1.8 / 1.5
MIAH Run-game matchup +0.09 Weak
MIA 4.9 rush Y/A / 3.7 allowed | CHI 4.5 / 4.5 | PBP 80% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
CHIA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.04 Weak
46% / 64% allowed | 50% / 67% allowed
CHIA Special teams efficiency +0.01 Weak
MIA FG 77.8% / NET PUNT 39.6 | CHI 72.7% / 45.6
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