Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers face Baltimore Ravens in Week 14 at M&T Bank Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter with a 1-5 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.8 points scored and 23.0 allowed.
Baltimore Ravens enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 26.0 points scored and 22.0 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Tampa Bay Buccaneers’s 19.8 points per game against a Baltimore Ravens defense allowing 22.0. In the other direction, Baltimore Ravens average 26.0 against Tampa Bay Buccaneers’s 23.0 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have injury designations to monitor: Baker Mayfield (QB) — Questionable; Benjamin Morrison (CB) — Questionable; Antoine Winfield Jr. (S) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Baltimore Ravens have injury designations to monitor: Rashod Bateman (WR) — Questionable; Lamar Jackson (QB) — Questionable; Cam Jurgens (C) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Baltimore Ravens are Record quality; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Schedule strength; Run-game matchup.
The current model leans toward BAL at 59.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-5
- 🏈 Record: Baltimore Ravens 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
BALH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
BAL 4-2 · TB 1-5
BALH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
BAL home field | BAL 56 days / TB 56 days
BALH Starting QB efficiency +0.92 Moderate
Lamar Jackson (2026) 70.8% CMP / 10.1 Y/A / 6.3% TD / 1.0% INT / 119.6 RATE · Baker Mayfield (2026) 63.5% CMP / 6.4 Y/A / 2.1% TD / 2.1% INT / 80.0 RATE
BALH Early-down efficiency +0.82 Moderate
51% / 40% allowed | 39% / 41% allowed
TBA Schedule strength +0.50 Very Strong
BAL 36% opp wins · TB 66%
BALH OL vs DL matchup +0.39 Weak
BAL OL sack 7.7% / DEF sack 7.1% | TB 10.2% / 4.9%
BALH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.34 Moderate
71% / 58% allowed | 47% / 53% allowed
TBA Run-game matchup +0.33 Weak
BAL 4.9 rush Y/A / 3.8 allowed | TB 4.8 / 3.4 | PBP 78% stuff avoided | 84% stuff avoided
BALH Explosive-play differential +0.28 Weak
7% / 6% allowed | 5% / 5% allowed
BALH Raw scoring differential +0.25 Moderate
BAL 26.0 PPG · TB 19.8 PPG | BAL 22.0 PA/G · TB 23.0 PA/G
TBA Third-down efficiency +0.21 Weak
BAL OFF 38.2% / DEF 39.5% | TB 36.8% / 33.8% | PBP 56%/56%/21% | 70%/56%/22%
TBA Game-script tendencies +0.19 Weak
47% neutral pass / 58 plays | 52% / 58
BALH Pass defense +0.18 Weak
BAL 6.0 net Y/A / 65.0% CMP / 87.0 RATE | TB 5.9 / 66.5% / 87.5
BALH Turnover differential +0.10 Weak
BAL 0.7 GIVE / 1.0 TAKE | TB 1.8 / 1.3
TBA Special teams efficiency +0.10 Weak
BAL FG 76.9% / NET PUNT 44.5 | TB 100.0% / 38.7
📄 More NFL Games — Sunday, December 13, 2026
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