Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Denver Broncos face New York Jets in Week 14 at MetLife Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Denver Broncos enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.0 points scored and 20.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
New York Jets enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 18.7 points scored and 20.3 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Denver Broncos’s 19.0 points per game against a New York Jets defense allowing 20.3. In the other direction, New York Jets average 18.7 against Denver Broncos’s 20.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Denver Broncos have injury designations to monitor: Tyler Badie (RB) — Questionable; Talanoa Hufanga (S) — Doubtful; Pat Surtain II (CB) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
New York Jets have injury designations to monitor: Breece Hall (RB) — Questionable; Kiko Mauigoa (LB) — Doubtful; Adonai Mitchell (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward New York Jets are Starting QB efficiency; Early-down efficiency.
The strongest model adjustments toward Denver Broncos are Record quality; OL vs DL matchup.
The current model leans toward NYJ at 56.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Denver Broncos 4-2
- 🏈 Record: New York Jets 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
NYJH Starting QB efficiency +1.3 Strong
Geno Smith (2026) 68.9% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 4.0% TD / 0.6% INT / 101.8 RATE · Bo Nix (2026) 60.3% CMP / 5.6 Y/A / 3.2% TD / 1.6% INT / 79.4 RATE
NYJH Early-down efficiency +1.0 Strong
48% / 44% allowed | 36% / 42% allowed
NYJH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
NYJ home field | NYJ 56 days / DEN 59 days
DENA Record quality +0.67 Strong
NYJ 2-4 · DEN 4-2
DENA OL vs DL matchup +0.48 Moderate
NYJ OL sack 9.7% / DEF sack 8.1% | DEN 4.1% / 7.7%
DENA Recent form +0.45 Moderate
NYJ L1 · DEN W2
DENA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.41 Moderate
31% / 50% allowed | 61% / 53% allowed
NYJH Explosive-play differential +0.40 Moderate
5% / 5% allowed | 3% / 6% allowed
NYJH Third-down efficiency +0.38 Moderate
NYJ OFF 35.1% / DEF 37.7% | DEN 31.6% / 44.4% | PBP 60%/41%/25% | 59%/25%/21%
NYJH Game-script tendencies +0.35 Moderate
54% neutral pass / 55 plays | 57% / 55
NYJH Run-game matchup +0.27 Weak
NYJ 3.6 rush Y/A / 4.2 allowed | DEN 3.4 / 4.7 | PBP 77% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
DENA Pass defense +0.25 Weak
NYJ 5.3 net Y/A / 61.5% CMP / 93.1 RATE | DEN 5.3 / 56.5% / 73.1
DENA Special teams efficiency +0.03 Weak
NYJ FG 92.3% / NET PUNT 42.3 | DEN 75.0% / 45.9
DENA Schedule strength +0.02 Weak
NYJ 57% opp wins · DEN 58%
NYJH Raw scoring differential +0.02 Weak
NYJ 18.7 PPG · DEN 19.0 PPG | NYJ 20.3 PA/G · DEN 20.8 PA/G
DENA Turnover differential +0.02 Weak
NYJ 0.7 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | DEN 1.0 / 1.7
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