Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Houston Texans face Washington Commanders in Week 14 at Northwest Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Houston Texans enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.0 points scored and 23.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
Washington Commanders enter with a 1-4-1 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.0 points scored and 28.7 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Houston Texans’s 24.0 points per game against a Washington Commanders defense allowing 28.7. In the other direction, Washington Commanders average 22.0 against Houston Texans’s 23.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Houston Texans have injury designations to monitor: Reed Blankenship (S) — Questionable; David Montgomery (RB) — Questionable; Jalen Pitre (S) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Washington Commanders have injury designations to monitor: Javon Kinlaw (DT) — Questionable; Marcus Mariota (QB) — Doubtful; Charles Omenihu (DE) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Washington Commanders are Home field / environment; Run-game matchup.
The strongest model adjustments toward Houston Texans are Early-down efficiency; Recent form.
The current model leans toward HOU at 53.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Houston Texans 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Washington Commanders 1-4-1
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
WSHH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
WSH home field | WSH 55 days / HOU 56 days
HOUA Early-down efficiency +0.87 Strong
41% / 48% allowed | 46% / 44% allowed
WSHH Run-game matchup +0.46 Moderate
WSH 4.6 rush Y/A / 4.0 allowed | HOU 3.6 / 3.4 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 79% stuff avoided
HOUA Recent form +0.45 Moderate
WSH L1 · HOU W2
HOUA OL vs DL matchup +0.41 Weak
WSH OL sack 6.5% / DEF sack 4.8% | HOU 6.0% / 7.6%
HOUA Record quality +0.33 Moderate
WSH 1-4 · HOU 2-4
HOUA Pass defense +0.33 Weak
WSH 6.6 net Y/A / 66.2% CMP / 105.0 RATE | HOU 6.3 / 65.6% / 96.6
HOUA Raw scoring differential +0.19 Weak
WSH 22.0 PPG · HOU 24.0 PPG | WSH 28.7 PA/G · HOU 23.8 PA/G
HOUA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.19 Weak
56% / 77% allowed | 57% / 63% allowed
WSHH Game-script tendencies +0.16 Weak
52% neutral pass / 61 plays | 60% / 60
HOUA Starting QB efficiency +0.16 Weak
Jayden Daniels (2026) 64.7% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 4.3% TD / 0.0% INT / 97.6 RATE · C.J. Stroud (2026) 65.3% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 4.1% TD / 0.5% INT / 100.9 RATE
HOUA Third-down efficiency +0.15 Weak
WSH OFF 30.9% / DEF 44.4% | HOU 39.0% / 40.8% | PBP 63%/39%/21% | 65%/22%/31%
HOUA Explosive-play differential +0.08 Weak
6% / 6% allowed | 7% / 7% allowed
WSHH Turnover differential +0.07 Weak
WSH 0.3 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | HOU 0.5 / 1.0
WSHH Schedule strength +0.05 Weak
WSH 51% opp wins · HOU 49%
WSHH Special teams efficiency +0.01 Weak
WSH FG 83.3% / NET PUNT 44.2 | HOU 92.9% / 43.7
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