Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Dallas Cowboys face Indianapolis Colts in Week 9 at Lucas Oil Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Dallas Cowboys enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.2 points scored and 26.5 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
Indianapolis Colts enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.0 points scored and 27.3 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
The scoring matchup puts Dallas Cowboys’s 25.2 points per game against a Indianapolis Colts defense allowing 27.3. In the other direction, Indianapolis Colts average 24.0 against Dallas Cowboys’s 26.5 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Dallas Cowboys have injury designations to monitor: DeMarvion Overshown (LB) — Questionable; KaVontae Turpin (WR) — Questionable; Dee Winters (LB) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Indianapolis Colts have injury designations to monitor: Jaylon Carlies (LB) — Questionable; Sauce Gardner (CB) — Doubtful; Anthony Gould (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Indianapolis Colts are Home field / environment; Explosive-play differential.
The strongest model adjustments toward Dallas Cowboys are Starting QB efficiency; Game-script tendencies.
The current model sees a closely balanced matchup with no strong projected edge.
- 🏈 Record: Dallas Cowboys 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Indianapolis Colts 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
INDH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
IND home field | IND 21 days / DAL 21 days
DALA Starting QB efficiency +0.88 Moderate
Daniel Jones (2026) 59.6% CMP / 5.9 Y/A / 1.8% TD / 2.8% INT / 71.1 RATE · Dak Prescott (2026) 66.3% CMP / 6.7 Y/A / 4.1% TD / 2.0% INT / 90.1 RATE
INDH Explosive-play differential +0.60 Moderate
6% / 6% allowed | 5% / 8% allowed
DALA Game-script tendencies +0.45 Moderate
55% neutral pass / 63 plays | 62% / 60
INDH Pass defense +0.41 Weak
IND 6.9 net Y/A / 61.4% CMP / 98.2 RATE | DAL 7.4 / 68.5% / 110.2
DALA Early-down efficiency +0.34 Weak
44% / 45% allowed | 49% / 47% allowed
DALA OL vs DL matchup +0.25 Weak
IND OL sack 6.4% / DEF sack 5.0% | DAL 2.8% / 4.2%
INDH Third-down efficiency +0.19 Weak
IND OFF 37.3% / DEF 30.4% | DAL 47.2% / 54.7% | PBP 64%/45%/11% | 80%/44%/30%
INDH Special teams efficiency +0.19 Moderate
IND FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 44.2 | DAL 75.0% / 44.1
INDH Schedule strength +0.14 Weak
IND 51% opp wins · DAL 44%
DALA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.10 Weak
63% / 61% allowed | 77% / 71% allowed
DALA Turnover differential +0.08 Weak
IND 1.8 GIVE / 0.5 TAKE | DAL 1.2 / 0.5
DALA Raw scoring differential +0.07 Weak
IND 24.0 PPG · DAL 25.2 PPG | IND 27.3 PA/G · DAL 26.5 PA/G
DALA Run-game matchup +0.02 Weak
IND 4.0 rush Y/A / 4.8 allowed | DAL 3.7 / 4.7 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
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