Baker Mayfield
Caleb Williams
NFL · MATCHUP INTELLIGENCE
November 8, 2026 · 8:20 PM ET
Buccaneers vs Bears
Soldier Field
TB 1-5 · CHI 4-2
Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Tampa Bay Buccaneers face Chicago Bears in Week 9 at Soldier Field. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter with a 1-5 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.8 points scored and 23.0 allowed.
Chicago Bears enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.0 points scored and 19.8 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Tampa Bay Buccaneers’s 19.8 points per game against a Chicago Bears defense allowing 19.8. In the other direction, Chicago Bears average 25.0 against Tampa Bay Buccaneers’s 23.0 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have injury designations to monitor: Baker Mayfield (QB) — Questionable; Benjamin Morrison (CB) — Questionable; Antoine Winfield Jr. (S) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Chicago Bears have injury designations to monitor: T.J. Edwards (LB) — Questionable; Jonah Jackson (G) — Questionable; Tony Fields II (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Chicago Bears are Record quality; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Explosive-play differential; Run-game matchup.
The current model leans toward CHI at 57.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-5
- 🏈 Record: Chicago Bears 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
CHIH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
CHI 4-2 · TB 1-5
CHIH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
CHI home field | CHI 21 days / TB 21 days
CHIH OL vs DL matchup +0.77 Moderate
CHI OL sack 6.7% / DEF sack 9.4% | TB 10.2% / 4.9%
CHIH Starting QB efficiency +0.56 Weak
Caleb Williams (2026) 72.5% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 3.3% TD / 1.1% INT / 101.5 RATE · Baker Mayfield (2026) 63.5% CMP / 6.4 Y/A / 2.1% TD / 2.1% INT / 80.0 RATE
TBA Explosive-play differential +0.44 Moderate
6% / 8% allowed | 5% / 5% allowed
TBA Run-game matchup +0.39 Moderate
CHI 4.5 rush Y/A / 4.5 allowed | TB 4.8 / 3.4 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 84% stuff avoided
CHIH Game-script tendencies +0.32 Moderate
52% neutral pass / 69 plays | 52% / 58
CHIH Recent form +0.30 Moderate
CHI W1 · TB L1
CHIH Raw scoring differential +0.30 Moderate
CHI 25.0 PPG · TB 19.8 PPG | CHI 19.8 PA/G · TB 23.0 PA/G
TBA Schedule strength +0.22 Moderate
CHI 54% opp wins · TB 66%
TBA Early-down efficiency +0.15 Weak
43% / 45% allowed | 39% / 41% allowed
TBA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.12 Weak
50% / 67% allowed | 47% / 53% allowed
TBA Special teams efficiency +0.11 Weak
CHI FG 72.7% / NET PUNT 45.6 | TB 100.0% / 38.7
CHIH Third-down efficiency +0.09 Weak
CHI OFF 45.5% / DEF 25.8% | TB 36.8% / 33.8% | PBP 53%/60%/25% | 70%/56%/22%
TBA Pass defense +0.05 Weak
CHI 7.1 net Y/A / 62.6% CMP / 99.9 RATE | TB 5.9 / 66.5% / 87.5
CHIH Turnover differential +0.04 Weak
CHI 1.8 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | TB 1.8 / 1.3
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