Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Houston Texans face Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9 at SoFi Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Houston Texans enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.0 points scored and 23.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
Los Angeles Chargers enter with a 0-6 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 15.0 points scored and 25.2 allowed. Their current streak is 6 losses.
The scoring matchup puts Houston Texans’s 24.0 points per game against a Los Angeles Chargers defense allowing 25.2. In the other direction, Los Angeles Chargers average 15.0 against Houston Texans’s 23.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Houston Texans have injury designations to monitor: Reed Blankenship (S) — Questionable; David Montgomery (RB) — Questionable; Jalen Pitre (S) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Los Angeles Chargers have injury designations to monitor: Joe Alt (OT) — Questionable; Kayode Awosika (G) — Questionable; Tre' Harris (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Los Angeles Chargers are Home field / environment; Schedule strength.
The strongest model adjustments toward Houston Texans are Starting QB efficiency; Recent form.
The current model leans toward HOU at 58.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Houston Texans 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Los Angeles Chargers 0-6
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
HOUA Starting QB efficiency +1.6 Strong
Justin Herbert (2026) 59.4% CMP / 6.3 Y/A / 2.8% TD / 4.4% INT / 68.8 RATE · C.J. Stroud (2026) 65.3% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 4.1% TD / 0.5% INT / 100.9 RATE
HOUA Recent form +1.0 Very Strong
LAC L6 · HOU W2
LACH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
LAC home field | LAC 21 days / HOU 21 days
HOUA Record quality +0.67 Strong
LAC 0-6 · HOU 2-4
HOUA OL vs DL matchup +0.58 Moderate
LAC OL sack 10.4% / DEF sack 6.0% | HOU 6.0% / 7.6%
HOUA Game-script tendencies +0.55 Strong
43% neutral pass / 56 plays | 60% / 60
LACH Schedule strength +0.30 Strong
LAC 64% opp wins · HOU 49%
LACH Third-down efficiency +0.30 Moderate
LAC OFF 34.1% / DEF 31.1% | HOU 39.0% / 40.8% | PBP 70%/36%/26% | 65%/22%/31%
HOUA Early-down efficiency +0.24 Weak
40% / 40% allowed | 46% / 44% allowed
HOUA Pass defense +0.23 Weak
LAC 6.8 net Y/A / 66.7% CMP / 90.7 RATE | HOU 6.3 / 65.6% / 96.6
HOUA Raw scoring differential +0.21 Weak
LAC 15.0 PPG · HOU 24.0 PPG | LAC 25.2 PA/G · HOU 23.8 PA/G
LACH Run-game matchup +0.19 Weak
LAC 4.2 rush Y/A / 4.0 allowed | HOU 3.6 / 3.4 | PBP 83% stuff avoided | 79% stuff avoided
HOUA Explosive-play differential +0.16 Weak
5% / 5% allowed | 7% / 7% allowed
LACH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.10 Weak
50% / 48% allowed | 57% / 63% allowed
HOUA Turnover differential +0.09 Weak
LAC 2.5 GIVE / 1.7 TAKE | HOU 0.5 / 1.0
HOUA Special teams efficiency +0.08 Weak
LAC FG 81.8% / NET PUNT 43.3 | HOU 92.9% / 43.7
📄 More NFL Games — Sunday, November 8, 2026
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