Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Green Bay Packers face New England Patriots in Week 9 at Gillette Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Green Bay Packers enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.2 points scored and 20.8 allowed. Their current streak is 3 wins.
New England Patriots enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.7 points scored and 18.8 allowed. Their current streak is 3 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Green Bay Packers’s 21.2 points per game against a New England Patriots defense allowing 18.8. In the other direction, New England Patriots average 22.7 against Green Bay Packers’s 20.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Green Bay Packers have injury designations to monitor: Aaron Banks (G) — Questionable; Benjamin St-Juste (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
New England Patriots have injury designations to monitor: A.J. Brown (WR) — Questionable; Morgan Moses (OT) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward New England Patriots are Home field / environment; Run-game matchup.
The strongest model adjustments toward Green Bay Packers are Key injury availability; Pass defense.
The current model sees a closely balanced matchup with no strong projected edge.
- 🏈 Record: Green Bay Packers 4-2
- 🏈 Record: New England Patriots 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
GBA Key injury availability +2.0 Strong
NE 4 unavailable starters · GB 0
NEH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
NE home field | NE 21 days / GB 21 days
GBA Pass defense +0.47 Moderate
NE 6.1 net Y/A / 66.1% CMP / 90.3 RATE | GB 5.1 / 64.5% / 73.9
NEH Run-game matchup +0.42 Moderate
NE 4.2 rush Y/A / 3.9 allowed | GB 2.9 / 4.0 | PBP 78% stuff avoided | 69% stuff avoided
NEH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.41 Moderate
56% / 50% allowed | 50% / 75% allowed
NEH Third-down efficiency +0.32 Moderate
NE OFF 40.5% / DEF 37.1% | GB 35.5% / 43.4% | PBP 62%/38%/31% | 60%/36%/21%
GBA Explosive-play differential +0.32 Weak
6% / 5% allowed | 8% / 4% allowed
GBA Turnover differential +0.27 Moderate
NE 2.2 GIVE / 1.2 TAKE | GB 1.2 / 1.8
NEH Early-down efficiency +0.24 Weak
43% / 45% allowed | 40% / 44% allowed
NEH Schedule strength +0.22 Moderate
NE 58% opp wins · GB 47%
GBA Game-script tendencies +0.16 Weak
51% neutral pass / 61 plays | 57% / 59
NEH Starting QB efficiency +0.15 Weak
Drake Maye (2026) 63.9% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 6.0% TD / 3.8% INT / 92.8 RATE · Jordan Love (2026) 59.7% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 4.9% TD / 1.8% INT / 91.8 RATE
GBA Special teams efficiency +0.13 Weak
NE FG 80.0% / NET PUNT 44.1 | GB 76.9% / 47.3
NEH Raw scoring differential +0.12 Weak
NE 22.7 PPG · GB 21.2 PPG | NE 18.8 PA/G · GB 20.8 PA/G
GBA OL vs DL matchup +0.02 Weak
NE OL sack 5.5% / DEF sack 6.8% | GB 5.4% / 6.6%
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