Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
New York Jets face Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9 at Arrowhead Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
New York Jets enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 18.7 points scored and 20.3 allowed.
Kansas City Chiefs enter with a 5-0 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 28.0 points scored and 16.6 allowed. Their current streak is 5 wins.
The scoring matchup puts New York Jets’s 18.7 points per game against a Kansas City Chiefs defense allowing 16.6. In the other direction, Kansas City Chiefs average 28.0 against New York Jets’s 20.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
New York Jets have injury designations to monitor: Breece Hall (RB) — Questionable; Kiko Mauigoa (LB) — Doubtful; Adonai Mitchell (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Kansas City Chiefs have injury designations to monitor: Rashee Rice (WR) — Questionable; Josh Simmons (OT) — Questionable; Cooper McDonald (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Kansas City Chiefs are Record quality; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward New York Jets are Game-script tendencies; Schedule strength.
The current model leans toward KC at 60.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: New York Jets 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Kansas City Chiefs 5-0
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
KCH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
KC 5-0 · NYJ 2-4
KCH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
KC home field | KC 21 days / NYJ 21 days
KCH Recent form +0.90 Very Strong
KC W5 · NYJ L1
KCH Run-game matchup +0.63 Moderate
KC 5.5 rush Y/A / 3.5 allowed | NYJ 3.6 / 4.2 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 77% stuff avoided
NYJA Game-script tendencies +0.59 Strong
57% neutral pass / 60 plays | 54% / 55
NYJA Schedule strength +0.50 Very Strong
KC 30% opp wins · NYJ 57%
KCH Explosive-play differential +0.50 Moderate
8% / 5% allowed | 5% / 5% allowed
KCH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.46 Strong
57% / 42% allowed | 31% / 50% allowed
KCH Raw scoring differential +0.28 Moderate
KC 28.0 PPG · NYJ 18.7 PPG | KC 16.6 PA/G · NYJ 20.3 PA/G
KCH Early-down efficiency +0.24 Weak
49% / 38% allowed | 48% / 44% allowed
KCH Starting QB efficiency +0.15 Weak
Patrick Mahomes (2026) 66.5% CMP / 8.3 Y/A / 5.7% TD / 1.9% INT / 103.1 RATE · Geno Smith (2026) 68.9% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 4.0% TD / 0.6% INT / 101.8 RATE
NYJA Pass defense +0.08 Weak
KC 5.7 net Y/A / 60.9% CMP / 74.1 RATE | NYJ 5.3 / 61.5% / 93.1
KCH Turnover differential +0.06 Weak
KC 0.8 GIVE / 1.8 TAKE | NYJ 0.7 / 1.3
KCH OL vs DL matchup +0.04 Weak
KC OL sack 3.7% / DEF sack 4.2% | NYJ 9.7% / 8.1%
KCH Special teams efficiency +0.04 Weak
KC FG 76.9% / NET PUNT 49.5 | NYJ 92.3% / 42.3
KCH Third-down efficiency +0.03 Weak
KC OFF 41.7% / DEF 35.7% | NYJ 35.1% / 37.7% | PBP 61%/33%/31% | 60%/41%/25%
📄 More NFL Games — Sunday, November 8, 2026
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