Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Detroit Lions face Miami Dolphins in Week 9 at Hard Rock Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Detroit Lions enter with a 3-2 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 32.8 points scored and 29.6 allowed.
Miami Dolphins enter with a 0-5 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 14.0 points scored and 26.4 allowed. Their current streak is 5 losses.
The scoring matchup puts Detroit Lions’s 32.8 points per game against a Miami Dolphins defense allowing 26.4. In the other direction, Miami Dolphins average 14.0 against Detroit Lions’s 29.6 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Detroit Lions have injury designations to monitor: Rock Ya-Sin (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Miami Dolphins have injury designations to monitor: JuJu Brents (CB) — Questionable; Caleb Douglas (WR) — Questionable; Jonah Savaiinaea (G) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Miami Dolphins are Home field / environment; Explosive-play differential.
The strongest model adjustments toward Detroit Lions are Starting QB efficiency; Record quality.
The current model leans toward DET at 61.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Detroit Lions 3-2
- 🏈 Record: Miami Dolphins 0-5
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
DETA Starting QB efficiency +1.7 Strong
Malik Willis (2026) 56.2% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 1.5% TD / 3.1% INT / 68.4 RATE · Jared Goff (2026) 67.0% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 6.3% TD / 0.0% INT / 111.3 RATE
DETA Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
MIA 0-5 · DET 3-2
MIAH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
MIA home field | MIA 28 days / DET 28 days
DETA Early-down efficiency +0.97 Strong
33% / 46% allowed | 51% / 48% allowed
DETA Recent form +0.90 Very Strong
MIA L5 · DET W1
DETA OL vs DL matchup +0.89 Strong
MIA OL sack 9.7% / DEF sack 2.7% | DET 5.4% / 8.6%
MIAH Explosive-play differential +0.54 Moderate
6% / 5% allowed | 6% / 8% allowed
MIAH Schedule strength +0.50 Very Strong
MIA 82% opp wins · DET 49%
DETA Game-script tendencies +0.46 Moderate
45% neutral pass / 51 plays | 58% / 63
DETA Pass defense +0.41 Weak
MIA 7.4 net Y/A / 76.6% CMP / 115.0 RATE | DET 6.4 / 68.1% / 106.3
DETA Raw scoring differential +0.24 Moderate
MIA 14.0 PPG · DET 32.8 PPG | MIA 26.4 PA/G · DET 29.6 PA/G
MIAH Third-down efficiency +0.19 Weak
MIA OFF 41.3% / DEF 51.7% | DET 37.3% / 50.7% | PBP 70%/70%/23% | 44%/63%/24%
DETA Turnover differential +0.18 Moderate
MIA 1.6 GIVE / 0.8 TAKE | DET 0.2 / 1.0
DETA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.18 Weak
46% / 64% allowed | 77% / 76% allowed
DETA Special teams efficiency +0.15 Moderate
MIA FG 77.8% / NET PUNT 39.6 | DET 100.0% / 44.4
MIAH Run-game matchup +0.13 Weak
MIA 4.9 rush Y/A / 3.7 allowed | DET 4.4 / 4.2 | PBP 80% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
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