Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Denver Broncos face New England Patriots in Week 17 at Gillette Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Denver Broncos enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.0 points scored and 20.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
New England Patriots enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.7 points scored and 18.8 allowed. Their current streak is 3 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Denver Broncos’s 19.0 points per game against a New England Patriots defense allowing 18.8. In the other direction, New England Patriots average 22.7 against Denver Broncos’s 20.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Denver Broncos have injury designations to monitor: Tyler Badie (RB) — Questionable; Talanoa Hufanga (S) — Doubtful; Pat Surtain II (CB) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
New England Patriots have injury designations to monitor: A.J. Brown (WR) — Questionable; Morgan Moses (OT) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward New England Patriots are Home field / environment; Explosive-play differential.
The strongest model adjustments toward Denver Broncos are Key injury availability; Pass defense.
The current model sees a closely balanced matchup with no strong projected edge.
- 🏈 Record: Denver Broncos 4-2
- 🏈 Record: New England Patriots 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
DENA Key injury availability +2.0 Strong
NE 4 unavailable starters · DEN 0
NEH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
NE home field | NE 77 days / DEN 79 days
NEH Explosive-play differential +0.73 Strong
6% / 5% allowed | 3% / 6% allowed
NEH Starting QB efficiency +0.73 Moderate
Drake Maye (2026) 63.9% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 6.0% TD / 3.8% INT / 92.8 RATE · Bo Nix (2026) 60.3% CMP / 5.6 Y/A / 3.2% TD / 1.6% INT / 79.4 RATE
DENA Pass defense +0.65 Moderate
NE 6.1 net Y/A / 66.1% CMP / 90.3 RATE | DEN 5.3 / 56.5% / 73.1
NEH Run-game matchup +0.49 Moderate
NE 4.2 rush Y/A / 3.9 allowed | DEN 3.4 / 4.7 | PBP 78% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
NEH Third-down efficiency +0.40 Moderate
NE OFF 40.5% / DEF 37.1% | DEN 31.6% / 44.4% | PBP 62%/38%/31% | 59%/25%/21%
NEH Early-down efficiency +0.39 Weak
43% / 45% allowed | 36% / 42% allowed
DENA OL vs DL matchup +0.36 Weak
NE OL sack 5.5% / DEF sack 6.8% | DEN 4.1% / 7.7%
DENA Turnover differential +0.26 Moderate
NE 2.2 GIVE / 1.2 TAKE | DEN 1.0 / 1.7
DENA Game-script tendencies +0.23 Weak
51% neutral pass / 61 plays | 57% / 55
NEH Raw scoring differential +0.16 Weak
NE 22.7 PPG · DEN 19.0 PPG | NE 18.8 PA/G · DEN 20.8 PA/G
NEH Recent form +0.15 Weak
NE W3 · DEN W2
DENA Special teams efficiency +0.05 Weak
NE FG 80.0% / NET PUNT 44.1 | DEN 75.0% / 45.9
DENA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.05 Weak
56% / 50% allowed | 61% / 53% allowed
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