Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Washington Commanders face Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17 at EverBank Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Washington Commanders enter with a 1-4-1 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.0 points scored and 28.7 allowed.
Jacksonville Jaguars enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.7 points scored and 17.3 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Washington Commanders’s 22.0 points per game against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense allowing 17.3. In the other direction, Jacksonville Jaguars average 25.7 against Washington Commanders’s 28.7 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Washington Commanders have injury designations to monitor: Javon Kinlaw (DT) — Questionable; Marcus Mariota (QB) — Doubtful; Charles Omenihu (DE) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Jacksonville Jaguars have injury designations to monitor: Montaric Brown (CB) — Questionable; Antonio Johnson (S) — Questionable; Ross Matiscik (LS) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Jacksonville Jaguars are Record quality; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward Washington Commanders are Game-script tendencies; Special teams efficiency.
The current model leans toward JAX at 62.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Washington Commanders 1-4-1
- 🏈 Record: Jacksonville Jaguars 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
JAXH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
JAX 4-2 · WSH 1-4
JAXH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
JAX home field | JAX 77 days / WSH 75 days
JAXH Early-down efficiency +0.97 Strong
47% / 44% allowed | 41% / 48% allowed
JAXH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.65 Very Strong
67% / 40% allowed | 56% / 77% allowed
JAXH Third-down efficiency +0.59 Strong
JAX OFF 47.9% / DEF 36.2% | WSH 30.9% / 44.4% | PBP 80%/56%/30% | 63%/39%/21%
JAXH Starting QB efficiency +0.54 Weak
Trevor Lawrence (2026) 65.2% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 7.6% TD / 2.2% INT / 106.2 RATE · Jayden Daniels (2026) 64.7% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 4.3% TD / 0.0% INT / 97.6 RATE
JAXH Raw scoring differential +0.47 Strong
JAX 25.7 PPG · WSH 22.0 PPG | JAX 17.3 PA/G · WSH 28.7 PA/G
WSHA Game-script tendencies +0.29 Weak
55% neutral pass / 58 plays | 52% / 61
JAXH OL vs DL matchup +0.27 Weak
JAX OL sack 5.2% / DEF sack 4.9% | WSH 6.5% / 4.8%
JAXH Run-game matchup +0.13 Weak
JAX 4.1 rush Y/A / 3.2 allowed | WSH 4.6 / 4.0 | PBP 80% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
JAXH Pass defense +0.10 Weak
JAX 7.4 net Y/A / 66.0% CMP / 87.7 RATE | WSH 6.6 / 66.2% / 105.0
JAXH Schedule strength +0.06 Weak
JAX 54% opp wins · WSH 51%
JAXH Explosive-play differential +0.04 Weak
7% / 7% allowed | 6% / 6% allowed
JAXH Turnover differential +0.02 Weak
JAX 0.7 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | WSH 0.3 / 1.3
WSHA Special teams efficiency +0.01 Weak
JAX FG 83.3% / NET PUNT 43.3 | WSH 83.3% / 44.2
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