Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Los Angeles Rams face Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 17 at Raymond James Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Los Angeles Rams enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.5 points scored and 23.0 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter with a 1-5 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.8 points scored and 23.0 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Los Angeles Rams’s 22.5 points per game against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense allowing 23.0. In the other direction, Tampa Bay Buccaneers average 19.8 against Los Angeles Rams’s 23.0 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Los Angeles Rams have injury designations to monitor: Trent McDuffie (CB) — Questionable; Justin Dedich (G) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have injury designations to monitor: Baker Mayfield (QB) — Questionable; Benjamin Morrison (CB) — Questionable; Antoine Winfield Jr. (S) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Home field / environment; Run-game matchup.
The strongest model adjustments toward Los Angeles Rams are Early-down efficiency; OL vs DL matchup.
The current model leans toward LAR at 53.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Los Angeles Rams 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-5
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
TBH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
TB home field | TB 77 days / LAR 76 days
LARA Early-down efficiency +0.73 Moderate
39% / 41% allowed | 51% / 44% allowed
LARA OL vs DL matchup +0.52 Moderate
TB OL sack 10.2% / DEF sack 4.9% | LAR 3.8% / 4.2%
LARA Explosive-play differential +0.44 Moderate
5% / 5% allowed | 6% / 4% allowed
LARA Pass defense +0.43 Weak
TB 5.9 net Y/A / 66.5% CMP / 87.5 RATE | LAR 5.3 / 57.5% / 77.2
TBH Run-game matchup +0.38 Moderate
TB 4.8 rush Y/A / 3.4 allowed | LAR 4.6 / 4.4 | PBP 84% stuff avoided | 84% stuff avoided
LARA Record quality +0.33 Moderate
TB 1-5 · LAR 2-4
LARA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.31 Moderate
47% / 53% allowed | 63% / 50% allowed
TBH Special teams efficiency +0.24 Moderate
TB FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 38.7 | LAR 60.0% / 41.5
LARA Starting QB efficiency +0.22 Weak
Baker Mayfield (2026) 63.5% CMP / 6.4 Y/A / 2.1% TD / 2.1% INT / 80.0 RATE · Matthew Stafford (2026) 65.9% CMP / 7.2 Y/A / 4.4% TD / 2.4% INT / 91.7 RATE
TBH Recent form +0.15 Weak
TB L1 · LAR L2
LARA Third-down efficiency +0.08 Weak
TB OFF 36.8% / DEF 33.8% | LAR 44.0% / 32.9% | PBP 70%/56%/22% | 73%/38%/22%
TBH Schedule strength +0.06 Weak
TB 66% opp wins · LAR 63%
LARA Raw scoring differential +0.06 Weak
TB 19.8 PPG · LAR 22.5 PPG | TB 23.0 PA/G · LAR 23.0 PA/G
TBH Game-script tendencies +0.06 Weak
52% neutral pass / 58 plays | 60% / 65
TBH Turnover differential +0.03 Weak
TB 1.8 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | LAR 1.5 / 1.0
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