Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Detroit Lions face Chicago Bears in Week 17 at Soldier Field. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Detroit Lions enter with a 3-2 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 32.8 points scored and 29.6 allowed.
Chicago Bears enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.0 points scored and 19.8 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Detroit Lions’s 32.8 points per game against a Chicago Bears defense allowing 19.8. In the other direction, Chicago Bears average 25.0 against Detroit Lions’s 29.6 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Detroit Lions have injury designations to monitor: Rock Ya-Sin (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Chicago Bears have injury designations to monitor: T.J. Edwards (LB) — Questionable; Jonah Jackson (G) — Questionable; Tony Fields II (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Chicago Bears are Home field / environment; Third-down efficiency.
The strongest model adjustments toward Detroit Lions are Early-down efficiency; Starting QB efficiency.
The current model sees a closely balanced matchup with no strong projected edge.
- 🏈 Record: Detroit Lions 3-2
- 🏈 Record: Chicago Bears 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
CHIH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
CHI home field | CHI 77 days / DET 84 days
DETA Early-down efficiency +0.56 Moderate
43% / 45% allowed | 51% / 48% allowed
CHIH Third-down efficiency +0.46 Strong
CHI OFF 45.5% / DEF 25.8% | DET 37.3% / 50.7% | PBP 53%/60%/25% | 44%/63%/24%
DETA Starting QB efficiency +0.25 Weak
Caleb Williams (2026) 72.5% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 3.3% TD / 1.1% INT / 101.5 RATE · Jared Goff (2026) 67.0% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 6.3% TD / 0.0% INT / 111.3 RATE
CHIH Raw scoring differential +0.14 Weak
CHI 25.0 PPG · DET 32.8 PPG | CHI 19.8 PA/G · DET 29.6 PA/G
DETA Special teams efficiency +0.14 Weak
CHI FG 72.7% / NET PUNT 45.6 | DET 100.0% / 44.4
DETA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.14 Weak
50% / 67% allowed | 77% / 76% allowed
CHIH Record quality +0.13 Weak
CHI 4-2 · DET 3-2
CHIH Schedule strength +0.12 Weak
CHI 54% opp wins · DET 49%
DETA OL vs DL matchup +0.10 Weak
CHI OL sack 6.7% / DEF sack 9.4% | DET 5.4% / 8.6%
DETA Explosive-play differential +0.10 Weak
6% / 8% allowed | 6% / 8% allowed
DETA Turnover differential +0.08 Weak
CHI 1.8 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | DET 0.2 / 1.0
CHIH Pass defense +0.07 Weak
CHI 7.1 net Y/A / 62.6% CMP / 99.9 RATE | DET 6.4 / 68.1% / 106.3
DETA Game-script tendencies +0.05 Weak
52% neutral pass / 69 plays | 58% / 63
CHIH Run-game matchup +0.04 Weak
CHI 4.5 rush Y/A / 4.5 allowed | DET 4.4 / 4.2 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
📄 More NFL Games — Sunday, January 3, 2027
See the Full Analysis
All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges — available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.