Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Buffalo Bills face New England Patriots in Week 13 at Gillette Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Buffalo Bills enter with a 5-1 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 32.8 points scored and 28.5 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
New England Patriots enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.7 points scored and 18.8 allowed. Their current streak is 3 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Buffalo Bills’s 32.8 points per game against a New England Patriots defense allowing 18.8. In the other direction, New England Patriots average 22.7 against Buffalo Bills’s 28.5 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Buffalo Bills have injury designations to monitor: DJ Moore (WR) — Questionable; Ed Oliver (DT) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
New England Patriots have injury designations to monitor: A.J. Brown (WR) — Questionable; Morgan Moses (OT) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward New England Patriots are Home field / environment; Schedule strength.
The strongest model adjustments toward Buffalo Bills are Key injury availability; Run-game matchup.
The current model sees a closely balanced matchup with no strong projected edge.
- 🏈 Record: Buffalo Bills 5-1
- 🏈 Record: New England Patriots 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
BUFA Key injury availability +1.5 Moderate
NE 4 unavailable starters · BUF 1
NEH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
NE home field | NE 49 days / BUF 49 days
BUFA Run-game matchup +0.55 Moderate
NE 4.2 rush Y/A / 3.9 allowed | BUF 5.1 / 3.8 | PBP 78% stuff avoided | 86% stuff avoided
BUFA Starting QB efficiency +0.51 Weak
Drake Maye (2026) 63.9% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 6.0% TD / 3.8% INT / 92.8 RATE · Josh Allen (2026) 66.7% CMP / 8.8 Y/A / 5.3% TD / 2.3% INT / 102.1 RATE
NEH Schedule strength +0.36 Strong
NE 58% opp wins · BUF 41%
NEH OL vs DL matchup +0.36 Weak
NE OL sack 5.5% / DEF sack 6.8% | BUF 6.6% / 4.3%
BUFA Record quality +0.33 Moderate
NE 4-2 · BUF 5-1
NEH Pass defense +0.28 Weak
NE 6.1 net Y/A / 66.1% CMP / 90.3 RATE | BUF 6.8 / 64.9% / 102.5
NEH Game-script tendencies +0.26 Weak
51% neutral pass / 61 plays | 53% / 56
BUFA Early-down efficiency +0.24 Weak
43% / 45% allowed | 48% / 48% allowed
BUFA Special teams efficiency +0.21 Moderate
NE FG 80.0% / NET PUNT 44.1 | BUF 100.0% / 46.0
BUFA Explosive-play differential +0.16 Weak
6% / 5% allowed | 9% / 7% allowed
NEH Recent form +0.15 Weak
NE W3 · BUF W2
NEH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.15 Weak
56% / 50% allowed | 69% / 69% allowed
NEH Raw scoring differential +0.07 Weak
NE 22.7 PPG · BUF 32.8 PPG | NE 18.8 PA/G · BUF 28.5 PA/G
BUFA Third-down efficiency +0.04 Weak
NE OFF 40.5% / DEF 37.1% | BUF 47.6% / 45.0% | PBP 62%/38%/31% | 67%/74%/27%
BUFA Turnover differential +0.04 Weak
NE 2.2 GIVE / 1.2 TAKE | BUF 1.5 / 1.0
📄 More NFL Games — Sunday, December 6, 2026
See the Full Analysis
All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges — available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.