Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Miami Dolphins face Denver Broncos in Week 13 at Empower Field at Mile High. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Miami Dolphins enter with a 0-5 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 14.0 points scored and 26.4 allowed. Their current streak is 5 losses.
Denver Broncos enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.0 points scored and 20.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Miami Dolphins’s 14.0 points per game against a Denver Broncos defense allowing 20.8. In the other direction, Denver Broncos average 19.0 against Miami Dolphins’s 26.4 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Miami Dolphins have injury designations to monitor: JuJu Brents (CB) — Questionable; Caleb Douglas (WR) — Questionable; Jonah Savaiinaea (G) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Denver Broncos have injury designations to monitor: Tyler Badie (RB) — Questionable; Talanoa Hufanga (S) — Doubtful; Pat Surtain II (CB) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Denver Broncos are Pass defense; Record quality.
The strongest model adjustments toward Miami Dolphins are Run-game matchup; Explosive-play differential.
The current model leans toward DEN at 61.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Miami Dolphins 0-5
- 🏈 Record: Denver Broncos 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
DENH Pass defense +1.0 Strong
DEN 5.3 net Y/A / 56.5% CMP / 73.1 RATE | MIA 7.4 / 76.6% / 115.0
DENH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
DEN 4-2 · MIA 0-5
DENH Recent form +1.0 Very Strong
DEN W2 · MIA L5
DENH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
DEN home field | DEN 52 days / MIA 56 days
DENH OL vs DL matchup +0.93 Strong
DEN OL sack 4.1% / DEF sack 7.7% | MIA 9.7% / 2.7%
MIAA Run-game matchup +0.64 Moderate
DEN 3.4 rush Y/A / 4.7 allowed | MIA 4.9 / 3.7 | PBP 80% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
MIAA Explosive-play differential +0.57 Moderate
3% / 6% allowed | 6% / 5% allowed
MIAA Schedule strength +0.47 Very Strong
DEN 58% opp wins · MIA 82%
DENH Starting QB efficiency +0.38 Weak
Bo Nix (2026) 60.3% CMP / 5.6 Y/A / 3.2% TD / 1.6% INT / 79.4 RATE · Malik Willis (2026) 56.2% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 1.5% TD / 3.1% INT / 68.4 RATE
DENH Game-script tendencies +0.35 Moderate
57% neutral pass / 55 plays | 45% / 51
DENH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.32 Moderate
61% / 53% allowed | 46% / 64% allowed
DENH Turnover differential +0.23 Moderate
DEN 1.0 GIVE / 1.7 TAKE | MIA 1.6 / 0.8
MIAA Third-down efficiency +0.21 Weak
DEN OFF 31.6% / DEF 44.4% | MIA 41.3% / 51.7% | PBP 59%/25%/21% | 70%/70%/23%
DENH Raw scoring differential +0.19 Weak
DEN 19.0 PPG · MIA 14.0 PPG | DEN 20.8 PA/G · MIA 26.4 PA/G
DENH Early-down efficiency +0.16 Weak
36% / 42% allowed | 33% / 46% allowed
DENH Special teams efficiency +0.06 Weak
DEN FG 75.0% / NET PUNT 45.9 | MIA 77.8% / 39.6
📄 More NFL Games — Sunday, December 6, 2026
See the Full Analysis
All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges — available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.