Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Detroit Lions face Atlanta Falcons in Week 13 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Detroit Lions enter with a 3-2 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 32.8 points scored and 29.6 allowed.
Atlanta Falcons enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 23.7 points scored and 25.5 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
The scoring matchup puts Detroit Lions’s 32.8 points per game against a Atlanta Falcons defense allowing 25.5. In the other direction, Atlanta Falcons average 23.7 against Detroit Lions’s 29.6 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Detroit Lions have injury designations to monitor: Rock Ya-Sin (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Atlanta Falcons have injury designations to monitor: Kendal Daniels (LB) — Questionable; Divine Deablo (LB) — Questionable; C.J. Henderson (CB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Atlanta Falcons are Home field / environment; Explosive-play differential.
The strongest model adjustments toward Detroit Lions are OL vs DL matchup; Record quality.
The current model sees a closely balanced matchup with no strong projected edge.
- 🏈 Record: Detroit Lions 3-2
- 🏈 Record: Atlanta Falcons 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
ATLH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
ATL home field | ATL 49 days / DET 56 days
ATLH Explosive-play differential +0.67 Moderate
8% / 5% allowed | 6% / 8% allowed
DETA OL vs DL matchup +0.58 Moderate
ATL OL sack 8.7% / DEF sack 5.7% | DET 5.4% / 8.6%
DETA Record quality +0.53 Moderate
ATL 2-4 · DET 3-2
DETA Recent form +0.45 Moderate
ATL L2 · DET W1
ATLH Run-game matchup +0.33 Weak
ATL 5.1 rush Y/A / 3.6 allowed | DET 4.4 / 4.2 | PBP 85% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
ATLH Third-down efficiency +0.27 Moderate
ATL OFF 38.9% / DEF 42.7% | DET 37.3% / 50.7% | PBP 80%/33%/35% | 44%/63%/24%
DETA Game-script tendencies +0.27 Weak
46% neutral pass / 56 plays | 58% / 63
ATLH Schedule strength +0.23 Moderate
ATL 60% opp wins · DET 49%
DETA Turnover differential +0.21 Moderate
ATL 2.0 GIVE / 0.8 TAKE | DET 0.2 / 1.0
ATLH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.18 Weak
75% / 64% allowed | 77% / 76% allowed
DETA Special teams efficiency +0.15 Moderate
ATL FG 75.0% / NET PUNT 45.8 | DET 100.0% / 44.4
ATLH Pass defense +0.13 Weak
ATL 5.8 net Y/A / 64.6% CMP / 95.1 RATE | DET 6.4 / 68.1% / 106.3
DETA Starting QB efficiency +0.11 Weak
Michael Penix Jr. (2026) 64.5% CMP / 8.6 Y/A / 5.5% TD / 0.9% INT / 106.0 RATE · Jared Goff (2026) 67.0% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 6.3% TD / 0.0% INT / 111.3 RATE
DETA Raw scoring differential +0.08 Weak
ATL 23.7 PPG · DET 32.8 PPG | ATL 25.5 PA/G · DET 29.6 PA/G
ATLH Early-down efficiency +0.08 Weak
46% / 41% allowed | 51% / 48% allowed
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