Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Los Angeles Chargers face Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 13 at Raymond James Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Los Angeles Chargers enter with a 0-6 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 15.0 points scored and 25.2 allowed. Their current streak is 6 losses.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter with a 1-5 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.8 points scored and 23.0 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Los Angeles Chargers’s 15.0 points per game against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense allowing 23.0. In the other direction, Tampa Bay Buccaneers average 19.8 against Los Angeles Chargers’s 25.2 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Los Angeles Chargers have injury designations to monitor: Joe Alt (OT) — Questionable; Kayode Awosika (G) — Questionable; Tre' Harris (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have injury designations to monitor: Baker Mayfield (QB) — Questionable; Benjamin Morrison (CB) — Questionable; Antoine Winfield Jr. (S) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers are Home field / environment; Recent form.
The strongest model adjustments toward Los Angeles Chargers are OL vs DL matchup; Early-down efficiency.
The current model leans toward TB at 58.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Los Angeles Chargers 0-6
- 🏈 Record: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-5
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
TBH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
TB home field | TB 49 days / LAC 49 days
TBH Recent form +0.75 Strong
TB L1 · LAC L6
TBH Run-game matchup +0.50 Moderate
TB 4.8 rush Y/A / 3.4 allowed | LAC 4.2 / 4.0 | PBP 84% stuff avoided | 83% stuff avoided
TBH Record quality +0.33 Moderate
TB 1-5 · LAC 0-6
TBH Game-script tendencies +0.26 Weak
52% neutral pass / 58 plays | 43% / 56
TBH Starting QB efficiency +0.25 Weak
Baker Mayfield (2026) 63.5% CMP / 6.4 Y/A / 2.1% TD / 2.1% INT / 80.0 RATE · Justin Herbert (2026) 59.4% CMP / 6.3 Y/A / 2.8% TD / 4.4% INT / 68.8 RATE
TBH Pass defense +0.23 Weak
TB 5.9 net Y/A / 66.5% CMP / 87.5 RATE | LAC 6.8 / 66.7% / 90.7
TBH Special teams efficiency +0.13 Weak
TB FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 38.7 | LAC 81.8% / 43.3
TBH Raw scoring differential +0.11 Weak
TB 19.8 PPG · LAC 15.0 PPG | TB 23.0 PA/G · LAC 25.2 PA/G
LACA OL vs DL matchup +0.10 Weak
TB OL sack 10.2% / DEF sack 4.9% | LAC 10.4% / 6.0%
LACA Early-down efficiency +0.10 Weak
39% / 41% allowed | 40% / 40% allowed
LACA Explosive-play differential +0.08 Weak
5% / 5% allowed | 5% / 5% allowed
LACA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.07 Weak
47% / 53% allowed | 50% / 48% allowed
TBH Schedule strength +0.03 Weak
TB 66% opp wins · LAC 64%
LACA Turnover differential +0.03 Weak
TB 1.8 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | LAC 2.5 / 1.7
TBH Third-down efficiency +0.02 Weak
TB OFF 36.8% / DEF 33.8% | LAC 34.1% / 31.1% | PBP 70%/56%/22% | 70%/36%/26%
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