Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars face Chicago Bears in Week 13 at Soldier Field. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Jacksonville Jaguars enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.7 points scored and 17.3 allowed.
Chicago Bears enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.0 points scored and 19.8 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Jacksonville Jaguars’s 25.7 points per game against a Chicago Bears defense allowing 19.8. In the other direction, Chicago Bears average 25.0 against Jacksonville Jaguars’s 17.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Jacksonville Jaguars have injury designations to monitor: Montaric Brown (CB) — Questionable; Antonio Johnson (S) — Questionable; Ross Matiscik (LS) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Chicago Bears have injury designations to monitor: T.J. Edwards (LB) — Questionable; Jonah Jackson (G) — Questionable; Tony Fields II (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Chicago Bears are Home field / environment; Recent form.
The strongest model adjustments toward Jacksonville Jaguars are Explosive-play differential; Early-down efficiency.
The current model sees a closely balanced matchup with no strong projected edge.
- 🏈 Record: Jacksonville Jaguars 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Chicago Bears 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
CHIH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
CHI home field | CHI 49 days / JAX 49 days
JAXA Explosive-play differential +0.65 Moderate
6% / 8% allowed | 7% / 7% allowed
JAXA Early-down efficiency +0.58 Moderate
43% / 45% allowed | 47% / 44% allowed
JAXA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.56 Strong
50% / 67% allowed | 67% / 40% allowed
CHIH Recent form +0.30 Moderate
CHI W1 · JAX L1
JAXA Run-game matchup +0.28 Weak
CHI 4.5 rush Y/A / 4.5 allowed | JAX 4.1 / 3.2 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
CHIH OL vs DL matchup +0.24 Weak
CHI OL sack 6.7% / DEF sack 9.4% | JAX 5.2% / 4.9%
JAXA Starting QB efficiency +0.22 Weak
Caleb Williams (2026) 72.5% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 3.3% TD / 1.1% INT / 101.5 RATE · Trevor Lawrence (2026) 65.2% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 7.6% TD / 2.2% INT / 106.2 RATE
CHIH Pass defense +0.19 Weak
CHI 7.1 net Y/A / 62.6% CMP / 99.9 RATE | JAX 7.4 / 66.0% / 87.7
JAXA Turnover differential +0.17 Moderate
CHI 1.8 GIVE / 1.5 TAKE | JAX 0.7 / 1.5
CHIH Game-script tendencies +0.16 Weak
52% neutral pass / 69 plays | 55% / 58
JAXA Raw scoring differential +0.08 Weak
CHI 25.0 PPG · JAX 25.7 PPG | CHI 19.8 PA/G · JAX 17.3 PA/G
JAXA Special teams efficiency +0.06 Weak
CHI FG 72.7% / NET PUNT 45.6 | JAX 83.3% / 43.3
JAXA Third-down efficiency +0.03 Weak
CHI OFF 45.5% / DEF 25.8% | JAX 47.9% / 36.2% | PBP 53%/60%/25% | 80%/56%/30%
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