Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Chicago Bears face Minnesota Vikings in Week 18 at U.S. Bank Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Chicago Bears enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.0 points scored and 19.8 allowed.
Minnesota Vikings enter with a 5-0 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 21.8 points scored and 12.8 allowed. Their current streak is 5 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Chicago Bears’s 25.0 points per game against a Minnesota Vikings defense allowing 12.8. In the other direction, Minnesota Vikings average 21.8 against Chicago Bears’s 19.8 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Chicago Bears have injury designations to monitor: T.J. Edwards (LB) — Questionable; Jonah Jackson (G) — Questionable; Tony Fields II (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Minnesota Vikings have injury designations to monitor: Jordan Addison (WR) — Questionable; Christian Darrisaw (OT) — Questionable; T.J. Hockenson (TE) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Minnesota Vikings are Home field / environment; Pass defense.
The strongest model adjustments toward Chicago Bears are Game-script tendencies; Starting QB efficiency.
The current model leans toward MIN at 56.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Chicago Bears 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Minnesota Vikings 5-0
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
MINH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
MIN home field | MIN 91 days / CHI 84 days
MINH Pass defense +0.71 Moderate
MIN 5.0 net Y/A / 53.2% CMP / 62.9 RATE | CHI 7.1 / 62.6% / 99.9
MINH Record quality +0.67 Strong
MIN 5-0 · CHI 4-2
MINH Recent form +0.60 Strong
MIN W5 · CHI W1
CHIA Game-script tendencies +0.51 Moderate
52% neutral pass / 58 plays | 52% / 69
CHIA Starting QB efficiency +0.48 Weak
Kyler Murray (2026) 68.3% CMP / 6.6 Y/A / 2.0% TD / 2.0% INT / 84.7 RATE · Caleb Williams (2026) 72.5% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 3.3% TD / 1.1% INT / 101.5 RATE
MINH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.44 Strong
50% / 25% allowed | 50% / 67% allowed
CHIA Schedule strength +0.36 Strong
MIN 37% opp wins · CHI 54%
CHIA Run-game matchup +0.31 Weak
MIN 3.8 rush Y/A / 4.0 allowed | CHI 4.5 / 4.5 | PBP 79% stuff avoided | 81% stuff avoided
MINH Explosive-play differential +0.30 Weak
5% / 5% allowed | 6% / 8% allowed
MINH Early-down efficiency +0.24 Weak
33% / 34% allowed | 43% / 45% allowed
MINH Turnover differential +0.19 Moderate
MIN 0.8 GIVE / 2.0 TAKE | CHI 1.8 / 1.5
MINH Special teams efficiency +0.14 Weak
MIN FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 41.0 | CHI 72.7% / 45.6
CHIA OL vs DL matchup +0.12 Weak
MIN OL sack 9.7% / DEF sack 9.8% | CHI 6.7% / 9.4%
CHIA Raw scoring differential +0.05 Weak
MIN 21.8 PPG · CHI 25.0 PPG | MIN 12.8 PA/G · CHI 19.8 PA/G
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