Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Tennessee Titans face Houston Texans in Week 18 at Reliant Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Tennessee Titans enter with a 1-5 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 14.0 points scored and 21.5 allowed.
Houston Texans enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.0 points scored and 23.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Tennessee Titans’s 14.0 points per game against a Houston Texans defense allowing 23.8. In the other direction, Houston Texans average 24.0 against Tennessee Titans’s 21.5 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Tennessee Titans have injury designations to monitor: Kevin Winston Jr. (S) — Questionable; Tony Adams (S) — Questionable; Dorian Mausi (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Houston Texans have injury designations to monitor: Reed Blankenship (S) — Questionable; David Montgomery (RB) — Questionable; Jalen Pitre (S) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Houston Texans are Starting QB efficiency; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward Tennessee Titans are Run-game matchup; OL vs DL matchup.
The current model leans toward HOU at 59.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Tennessee Titans 1-5
- 🏈 Record: Houston Texans 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
HOUH Starting QB efficiency +1.4 Strong
C.J. Stroud (2026) 65.3% CMP / 7.8 Y/A / 4.1% TD / 0.5% INT / 100.9 RATE · Cam Ward (2026) 61.6% CMP / 5.6 Y/A / 2.3% TD / 2.3% INT / 75.0 RATE
HOUH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
HOU home field | HOU 84 days / TEN 84 days
HOUH Explosive-play differential +0.48 Moderate
7% / 7% allowed | 4% / 5% allowed
HOUH Early-down efficiency +0.44 Weak
46% / 44% allowed | 39% / 42% allowed
TENA Run-game matchup +0.35 Weak
HOU 3.6 rush Y/A / 3.4 allowed | TEN 3.8 / 3.8 | PBP 79% stuff avoided | 87% stuff avoided
HOUH Record quality +0.33 Moderate
HOU 2-4 · TEN 1-5
TENA OL vs DL matchup +0.17 Weak
HOU OL sack 6.0% / DEF sack 7.6% | TEN 5.3% / 7.8%
HOUH Turnover differential +0.16 Moderate
HOU 0.5 GIVE / 1.0 TAKE | TEN 1.3 / 0.8
HOUH Recent form +0.15 Weak
HOU W2 · TEN W1
HOUH Schedule strength +0.12 Weak
HOU 49% opp wins · TEN 43%
HOUH Raw scoring differential +0.12 Weak
HOU 24.0 PPG · TEN 14.0 PPG | HOU 23.8 PA/G · TEN 21.5 PA/G
HOUH Pass defense +0.08 Weak
HOU 6.3 net Y/A / 65.6% CMP / 96.6 RATE | TEN 6.5 / 69.1% / 92.8
TENA Special teams efficiency +0.06 Weak
HOU FG 92.9% / NET PUNT 43.7 | TEN 90.0% / 45.6
HOUH Game-script tendencies +0.06 Weak
60% neutral pass / 60 plays | 51% / 51
HOUH Third-down efficiency +0.05 Weak
HOU OFF 39.0% / DEF 40.8% | TEN 34.8% / 40.0% | PBP 65%/22%/31% | 69%/44%/14%
HOUH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.02 Weak
57% / 63% allowed | 47% / 55% allowed
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