Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Miami Dolphins face New England Patriots in Week 18 at Gillette Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Miami Dolphins enter with a 0-5 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 14.0 points scored and 26.4 allowed. Their current streak is 5 losses.
New England Patriots enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.7 points scored and 18.8 allowed. Their current streak is 3 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Miami Dolphins’s 14.0 points per game against a New England Patriots defense allowing 18.8. In the other direction, New England Patriots average 22.7 against Miami Dolphins’s 26.4 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Miami Dolphins have injury designations to monitor: JuJu Brents (CB) — Questionable; Caleb Douglas (WR) — Questionable; Jonah Savaiinaea (G) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
New England Patriots have injury designations to monitor: A.J. Brown (WR) — Questionable; Morgan Moses (OT) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward New England Patriots are Record quality; Recent form.
The strongest model adjustments toward Miami Dolphins are Key injury availability; Schedule strength.
The current model leans toward NE at 59.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Miami Dolphins 0-5
- 🏈 Record: New England Patriots 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
MIAA Key injury availability +2.0 Strong
NE 4 unavailable starters · MIA 0
NEH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
NE 4-2 · MIA 0-5
NEH Recent form +1.0 Very Strong
NE W3 · MIA L5
NEH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
NE home field | NE 84 days / MIA 91 days
NEH Starting QB efficiency +0.93 Moderate
Drake Maye (2026) 63.9% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 6.0% TD / 3.8% INT / 92.8 RATE · Malik Willis (2026) 56.2% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 1.5% TD / 3.1% INT / 68.4 RATE
NEH OL vs DL matchup +0.62 Moderate
NE OL sack 5.5% / DEF sack 6.8% | MIA 9.7% / 2.7%
NEH Pass defense +0.50 Moderate
NE 6.1 net Y/A / 66.1% CMP / 90.3 RATE | MIA 7.4 / 76.6% / 115.0
NEH Early-down efficiency +0.48 Moderate
43% / 45% allowed | 33% / 46% allowed
MIAA Schedule strength +0.47 Very Strong
NE 58% opp wins · MIA 82%
NEH Raw scoring differential +0.32 Moderate
NE 22.7 PPG · MIA 14.0 PPG | NE 18.8 PA/G · MIA 26.4 PA/G
NEH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.28 Moderate
56% / 50% allowed | 46% / 64% allowed
MIAA Run-game matchup +0.24 Weak
NE 4.2 rush Y/A / 3.9 allowed | MIA 4.9 / 3.7 | PBP 78% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
NEH Game-script tendencies +0.16 Weak
51% neutral pass / 61 plays | 45% / 51
NEH Third-down efficiency +0.12 Weak
NE OFF 40.5% / DEF 37.1% | MIA 41.3% / 51.7% | PBP 62%/38%/31% | 70%/70%/23%
NEH Special teams efficiency +0.03 Weak
NE FG 80.0% / NET PUNT 44.1 | MIA 77.8% / 39.6
NEH Explosive-play differential +0.03 Weak
6% / 5% allowed | 6% / 5% allowed
NEH Turnover differential +0.01 Weak
NE 2.2 GIVE / 1.2 TAKE | MIA 1.6 / 0.8
📄 More NFL Games — Sunday, January 10, 2027
See the Full Analysis
All Key Suspects with verdict breakdowns, matchup conditions, sharp money signals, live lineup tracking, and player prop edges — available in the BlowOutAlert workspace.