Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars face Indianapolis Colts in Week 18 at Lucas Oil Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Jacksonville Jaguars enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.7 points scored and 17.3 allowed.
Indianapolis Colts enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 24.0 points scored and 27.3 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
The scoring matchup puts Jacksonville Jaguars’s 25.7 points per game against a Indianapolis Colts defense allowing 27.3. In the other direction, Indianapolis Colts average 24.0 against Jacksonville Jaguars’s 17.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Jacksonville Jaguars have injury designations to monitor: Montaric Brown (CB) — Questionable; Antonio Johnson (S) — Questionable; Ross Matiscik (LS) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Indianapolis Colts have injury designations to monitor: Jaylon Carlies (LB) — Questionable; Sauce Gardner (CB) — Doubtful; Anthony Gould (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Indianapolis Colts are Home field / environment; Special teams efficiency.
The strongest model adjustments toward Jacksonville Jaguars are Starting QB efficiency; Run-game matchup.
The current model leans toward JAX at 60.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Jacksonville Jaguars 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Indianapolis Colts 2-4
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
JAXA Starting QB efficiency +2.1 Very Strong
Daniel Jones (2026) 59.6% CMP / 5.9 Y/A / 1.8% TD / 2.8% INT / 71.1 RATE · Trevor Lawrence (2026) 65.2% CMP / 8.0 Y/A / 7.6% TD / 2.2% INT / 106.2 RATE
INDH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
IND home field | IND 84 days / JAX 84 days
JAXA Run-game matchup +0.77 Strong
IND 4.0 rush Y/A / 4.8 allowed | JAX 4.1 / 3.2 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
JAXA Record quality +0.67 Strong
IND 2-4 · JAX 4-2
JAXA Early-down efficiency +0.39 Weak
44% / 45% allowed | 47% / 44% allowed
JAXA Raw scoring differential +0.37 Moderate
IND 24.0 PPG · JAX 25.7 PPG | IND 27.3 PA/G · JAX 17.3 PA/G
JAXA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.34 Moderate
63% / 61% allowed | 67% / 40% allowed
JAXA Turnover differential +0.32 Strong
IND 1.8 GIVE / 0.5 TAKE | JAX 0.7 / 1.5
JAXA Third-down efficiency +0.20 Weak
IND OFF 37.3% / DEF 30.4% | JAX 47.9% / 36.2% | PBP 64%/45%/11% | 80%/56%/30%
JAXA OL vs DL matchup +0.17 Weak
IND OL sack 6.4% / DEF sack 5.0% | JAX 5.2% / 4.9%
JAXA Recent form +0.15 Weak
IND L2 · JAX L1
INDH Special teams efficiency +0.14 Weak
IND FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 44.2 | JAX 83.3% / 43.3
JAXA Explosive-play differential +0.08 Weak
6% / 6% allowed | 7% / 7% allowed
JAXA Schedule strength +0.06 Weak
IND 51% opp wins · JAX 54%
INDH Pass defense +0.06 Weak
IND 6.9 net Y/A / 61.4% CMP / 98.2 RATE | JAX 7.4 / 66.0% / 87.7
JAXA Game-script tendencies +0.03 Weak
55% neutral pass / 63 plays | 55% / 58
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