Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
New York Jets face Buffalo Bills in Week 18 at Highmark Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
New York Jets enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 18.7 points scored and 20.3 allowed.
Buffalo Bills enter with a 5-1 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 32.8 points scored and 28.5 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
The scoring matchup puts New York Jets’s 18.7 points per game against a Buffalo Bills defense allowing 28.5. In the other direction, Buffalo Bills average 32.8 against New York Jets’s 20.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
New York Jets have injury designations to monitor: Breece Hall (RB) — Questionable; Kiko Mauigoa (LB) — Doubtful; Adonai Mitchell (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Buffalo Bills have injury designations to monitor: DJ Moore (WR) — Questionable; Ed Oliver (DT) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Buffalo Bills are Record quality; Home field / environment.
The strongest model adjustments toward New York Jets are Game-script tendencies; Pass defense.
The current model leans toward BUF at 53.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: New York Jets 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Buffalo Bills 5-1
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
BUFH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
BUF 5-1 · NYJ 2-4
BUFH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
BUF home field | BUF 83 days / NYJ 84 days
NYJA Game-script tendencies +0.84 Very Strong
53% neutral pass / 56 plays | 54% / 55
BUFH Run-game matchup +0.77 Strong
BUF 5.1 rush Y/A / 3.8 allowed | NYJ 3.6 / 4.2 | PBP 86% stuff avoided | 77% stuff avoided
NYJA Pass defense +0.68 Moderate
BUF 6.8 net Y/A / 64.9% CMP / 102.5 RATE | NYJ 5.3 / 61.5% / 93.1
NYJA Key injury availability +0.50 Weak
BUF 1 unavailable starters · NYJ 0
BUFH Explosive-play differential +0.48 Moderate
9% / 7% allowed | 5% / 5% allowed
BUFH Recent form +0.45 Moderate
BUF W2 · NYJ L1
NYJA Early-down efficiency +0.39 Weak
48% / 48% allowed | 48% / 44% allowed
NYJA Schedule strength +0.33 Strong
BUF 41% opp wins · NYJ 57%
NYJA OL vs DL matchup +0.24 Weak
BUF OL sack 6.6% / DEF sack 4.3% | NYJ 9.7% / 8.1%
BUFH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.22 Weak
69% / 69% allowed | 31% / 50% allowed
NYJA Turnover differential +0.19 Moderate
BUF 1.5 GIVE / 1.0 TAKE | NYJ 0.7 / 1.3
BUFH Special teams efficiency +0.19 Moderate
BUF FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 46.0 | NYJ 92.3% / 42.3
BUFH Raw scoring differential +0.07 Weak
BUF 32.8 PPG · NYJ 18.7 PPG | BUF 28.5 PA/G · NYJ 20.3 PA/G
BUFH Starting QB efficiency +0.07 Weak
Josh Allen (2026) 66.7% CMP / 8.8 Y/A / 5.3% TD / 2.3% INT / 102.1 RATE · Geno Smith (2026) 68.9% CMP / 7.5 Y/A / 4.0% TD / 0.6% INT / 101.8 RATE
BUFH Third-down efficiency +0.06 Weak
BUF OFF 47.6% / DEF 45.0% | NYJ 35.1% / 37.7% | PBP 67%/74%/27% | 60%/41%/25%
📄 More NFL Games — Sunday, January 10, 2027
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