Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Los Angeles Chargers face Denver Broncos in Week 18 at Empower Field at Mile High. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Los Angeles Chargers enter with a 0-6 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 15.0 points scored and 25.2 allowed. Their current streak is 6 losses.
Denver Broncos enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 19.0 points scored and 20.8 allowed. Their current streak is 2 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Los Angeles Chargers’s 15.0 points per game against a Denver Broncos defense allowing 20.8. In the other direction, Denver Broncos average 19.0 against Los Angeles Chargers’s 25.2 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Los Angeles Chargers have injury designations to monitor: Joe Alt (OT) — Questionable; Kayode Awosika (G) — Questionable; Tre' Harris (WR) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Denver Broncos have injury designations to monitor: Tyler Badie (RB) — Questionable; Talanoa Hufanga (S) — Doubtful; Pat Surtain II (CB) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Denver Broncos are Record quality; Recent form.
The strongest model adjustments toward Los Angeles Chargers are Run-game matchup; Early-down efficiency.
The current model leans toward DEN at 59.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Los Angeles Chargers 0-6
- 🏈 Record: Denver Broncos 4-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
DENH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
DEN 4-2 · LAC 0-6
DENH Recent form +1.0 Very Strong
DEN W2 · LAC L6
DENH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
DEN home field | DEN 86 days / LAC 83 days
DENH Pass defense +0.86 Strong
DEN 5.3 net Y/A / 56.5% CMP / 73.1 RATE | LAC 6.8 / 66.7% / 90.7
DENH OL vs DL matchup +0.85 Strong
DEN OL sack 4.1% / DEF sack 7.7% | LAC 10.4% / 6.0%
LACA Run-game matchup +0.56 Moderate
DEN 3.4 rush Y/A / 4.7 allowed | LAC 4.2 / 4.0 | PBP 80% stuff avoided | 83% stuff avoided
LACA Early-down efficiency +0.53 Moderate
36% / 42% allowed | 40% / 40% allowed
DENH Game-script tendencies +0.52 Moderate
57% neutral pass / 55 plays | 43% / 56
LACA Third-down efficiency +0.48 Strong
DEN OFF 31.6% / DEF 44.4% | LAC 34.1% / 31.1% | PBP 59%/25%/21% | 70%/36%/26%
LACA Explosive-play differential +0.44 Moderate
3% / 6% allowed | 5% / 5% allowed
DENH Starting QB efficiency +0.44 Weak
Bo Nix (2026) 60.3% CMP / 5.6 Y/A / 3.2% TD / 1.6% INT / 79.4 RATE · Justin Herbert (2026) 59.4% CMP / 6.3 Y/A / 2.8% TD / 4.4% INT / 68.8 RATE
DENH Raw scoring differential +0.19 Weak
DEN 19.0 PPG · LAC 15.0 PPG | DEN 20.8 PA/G · LAC 25.2 PA/G
DENH Turnover differential +0.16 Moderate
DEN 1.0 GIVE / 1.7 TAKE | LAC 2.5 / 1.7
DENH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.15 Weak
61% / 53% allowed | 50% / 48% allowed
LACA Schedule strength +0.11 Weak
DEN 58% opp wins · LAC 64%
DENH Special teams efficiency +0.08 Weak
DEN FG 75.0% / NET PUNT 45.9 | LAC 81.8% / 43.3
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