Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Cleveland Browns face Cincinnati Bengals in Week 18 at Paycor Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Cleveland Browns enter with a 4-2 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 17.7 points scored and 20.3 allowed.
Cincinnati Bengals enter with a 3-2 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.6 points scored and 21.8 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Cleveland Browns’s 17.7 points per game against a Cincinnati Bengals defense allowing 21.8. In the other direction, Cincinnati Bengals average 25.6 against Cleveland Browns’s 20.3 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Cleveland Browns have injury designations to monitor: Grant Delpit (S) — Questionable; Mason Graham (DT) — Questionable; Quinshon Judkins (RB) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Cincinnati Bengals have injury designations to monitor: Colbie Young (WR) — Questionable; Kyle Dugger (S) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Cincinnati Bengals are Home field / environment; Starting QB efficiency.
The strongest model adjustments toward Cleveland Browns are Explosive-play differential; Schedule strength.
The current model leans toward CIN at 56.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Cleveland Browns 4-2
- 🏈 Record: Cincinnati Bengals 3-2
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
CINH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
CIN home field | CIN 91 days / CLE 84 days
CINH Starting QB efficiency +0.73 Moderate
Joe Burrow (2026) 71.4% CMP / 7.2 Y/A / 5.8% TD / 1.6% INT / 104.4 RATE · Deshaun Watson (2026) 63.8% CMP / 6.7 Y/A / 4.0% TD / 1.1% INT / 92.0 RATE
CINH Game-script tendencies +0.56 Strong
61% neutral pass / 60 plays | 52% / 54
CINH OL vs DL matchup +0.54 Moderate
CIN OL sack 4.5% / DEF sack 9.2% | CLE 12.1% / 8.4%
CINH Early-down efficiency +0.36 Weak
45% / 45% allowed | 40% / 43% allowed
CLEA Explosive-play differential +0.34 Weak
5% / 8% allowed | 6% / 6% allowed
CLEA Schedule strength +0.30 Strong
CIN 37% opp wins · CLE 52%
CINH Raw scoring differential +0.14 Weak
CIN 25.6 PPG · CLE 17.7 PPG | CIN 21.8 PA/G · CLE 20.3 PA/G
CINH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.14 Weak
53% / 41% allowed | 46% / 44% allowed
CLEA Record quality +0.13 Weak
CIN 3-2 · CLE 4-2
CLEA Pass defense +0.11 Weak
CIN 6.0 net Y/A / 62.5% CMP / 87.0 RATE | CLE 5.5 / 59.7% / 89.1
CINH Third-down efficiency +0.09 Weak
CIN OFF 50.0% / DEF 46.0% | CLE 30.8% / 39.1% | PBP 65%/63%/32% | 73%/43%/13%
CLEA Special teams efficiency +0.08 Weak
CIN FG 100.0% / NET PUNT 39.8 | CLE 92.3% / 46.4
CINH Turnover differential +0.06 Weak
CIN 1.2 GIVE / 1.6 TAKE | CLE 1.2 / 1.2
CINH Run-game matchup +0.05 Weak
CIN 3.6 rush Y/A / 5.0 allowed | CLE 3.6 / 4.4 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 79% stuff avoided
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