Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Las Vegas Raiders face Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18 at Arrowhead Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Las Vegas Raiders enter with a 3-3 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 27.0 points scored and 27.0 allowed. Their current streak is 3 losses.
Kansas City Chiefs enter with a 5-0 record across 5 completed games in this competition phase. They average 28.0 points scored and 16.6 allowed. Their current streak is 5 wins.
The scoring matchup puts Las Vegas Raiders’s 27.0 points per game against a Kansas City Chiefs defense allowing 16.6. In the other direction, Kansas City Chiefs average 28.0 against Las Vegas Raiders’s 27.0 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Las Vegas Raiders have injury designations to monitor: Tonka Hemingway (DT) — Questionable; Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Kansas City Chiefs have injury designations to monitor: Rashee Rice (WR) — Questionable; Josh Simmons (OT) — Questionable; Cooper McDonald (LB) — IR-R. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Kansas City Chiefs are Early-down efficiency; Record quality.
The strongest model adjustments toward Las Vegas Raiders are Game-script tendencies; Schedule strength.
The current model leans toward KC at 63.0% estimated win probability. This is a provisional model estimate, not a calibrated guarantee.
- 🏈 Record: Las Vegas Raiders 3-3
- 🏈 Record: Kansas City Chiefs 5-0
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
KCH Early-down efficiency +1.1 Strong
49% / 38% allowed | 41% / 48% allowed
KCH Record quality +1.0 Very Strong
KC 5-0 · LV 3-3
KCH Recent form +1.0 Very Strong
KC W5 · LV L3
KCH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
KC home field | KC 83 days / LV 83 days
KCH Run-game matchup +0.88 Strong
KC 5.5 rush Y/A / 3.5 allowed | LV 3.0 / 4.9 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 70% stuff avoided
KCH Explosive-play differential +0.67 Moderate
8% / 5% allowed | 6% / 7% allowed
LVA Game-script tendencies +0.65 Strong
57% neutral pass / 60 plays | 58% / 62
KCH Starting QB efficiency +0.44 Weak
Patrick Mahomes (2026) 66.5% CMP / 8.3 Y/A / 5.7% TD / 1.9% INT / 103.1 RATE · Kirk Cousins (2026) 63.4% CMP / 7.4 Y/A / 6.6% TD / 2.3% INT / 98.0 RATE
KCH Red-zone TD efficiency +0.42 Strong
57% / 42% allowed | 57% / 74% allowed
KCH Pass defense +0.37 Weak
KC 5.7 net Y/A / 60.9% CMP / 74.1 RATE | LV 6.8 / 63.7% / 101.8
LVA Schedule strength +0.34 Strong
KC 30% opp wins · LV 47%
LVA OL vs DL matchup +0.34 Weak
KC OL sack 3.7% / DEF sack 4.2% | LV 3.5% / 7.2%
KCH Raw scoring differential +0.25 Moderate
KC 28.0 PPG · LV 27.0 PPG | KC 16.6 PA/G · LV 27.0 PA/G
KCH Third-down efficiency +0.15 Weak
KC OFF 41.7% / DEF 35.7% | LV 42.3% / 41.3% | PBP 61%/33%/31% | 60%/50%/33%
LVA Special teams efficiency +0.12 Weak
KC FG 76.9% / NET PUNT 49.5 | LV 93.3% / 46.8
KCH Turnover differential +0.09 Weak
KC 0.8 GIVE / 1.8 TAKE | LV 1.3 / 1.7
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