Matchup Analysis Automated Analysis
Dallas Cowboys face Washington Commanders in Week 18 at Northwest Stadium. This early analysis uses the available pregame data; injury reports and market prices can still change before kickoff.
Dallas Cowboys enter with a 2-4 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 25.2 points scored and 26.5 allowed. Their current streak is 2 losses.
Washington Commanders enter with a 1-4-1 record across 6 completed games in this competition phase. They average 22.0 points scored and 28.7 allowed.
The scoring matchup puts Dallas Cowboys’s 25.2 points per game against a Washington Commanders defense allowing 28.7. In the other direction, Washington Commanders average 22.0 against Dallas Cowboys’s 26.5 allowed. These season averages provide a broad view of offensive production and defensive results; they do not adjust for opponent strength or establish a specific passing or rushing advantage.
Dallas Cowboys have injury designations to monitor: DeMarvion Overshown (LB) — Questionable; KaVontae Turpin (WR) — Questionable; Dee Winters (LB) — Doubtful. These designations do not confirm who will start.
Washington Commanders have injury designations to monitor: Javon Kinlaw (DT) — Questionable; Marcus Mariota (QB) — Doubtful; Charles Omenihu (DE) — Questionable. These designations do not confirm who will start.
The strongest model adjustments toward Washington Commanders are Home field / environment; Explosive-play differential.
The strongest model adjustments toward Dallas Cowboys are Early-down efficiency; Red-zone TD efficiency.
The current model sees a closely balanced matchup with no strong projected edge.
- 🏈 Record: Dallas Cowboys 2-4
- 🏈 Record: Washington Commanders 1-4-1
SportsFBI Model
⚖️ Game Edges
Key factors driving this matchup
WSHH Home field / environment +1.0 Moderate
WSH home field | WSH 82 days / DAL 83 days
DALA Early-down efficiency +0.92 Strong
41% / 48% allowed | 49% / 47% allowed
WSHH Explosive-play differential +0.65 Moderate
6% / 6% allowed | 5% / 8% allowed
WSHH Run-game matchup +0.63 Moderate
WSH 4.6 rush Y/A / 4.0 allowed | DAL 3.7 / 4.7 | PBP 81% stuff avoided | 80% stuff avoided
DALA Red-zone TD efficiency +0.41 Moderate
56% / 77% allowed | 77% / 71% allowed
DALA OL vs DL matchup +0.35 Weak
WSH OL sack 6.5% / DEF sack 4.8% | DAL 2.8% / 4.2%
DALA Record quality +0.33 Moderate
WSH 1-4 · DAL 2-4
WSHH Starting QB efficiency +0.27 Weak
Jayden Daniels (2026) 64.7% CMP / 6.5 Y/A / 4.3% TD / 0.0% INT / 97.6 RATE · Dak Prescott (2026) 66.3% CMP / 6.7 Y/A / 4.1% TD / 2.0% INT / 90.1 RATE
WSHH Pass defense +0.25 Weak
WSH 6.6 net Y/A / 66.2% CMP / 105.0 RATE | DAL 7.4 / 68.5% / 110.2
WSHH Turnover differential +0.23 Moderate
WSH 0.3 GIVE / 1.3 TAKE | DAL 1.2 / 0.5
DALA Third-down efficiency +0.20 Weak
WSH OFF 30.9% / DEF 44.4% | DAL 47.2% / 54.7% | PBP 63%/39%/21% | 80%/44%/30%
DALA Raw scoring differential +0.17 Weak
WSH 22.0 PPG · DAL 25.2 PPG | WSH 28.7 PA/G · DAL 26.5 PA/G
WSHH Recent form +0.15 Weak
WSH L1 · DAL L2
WSHH Schedule strength +0.14 Weak
WSH 51% opp wins · DAL 44%
DALA Game-script tendencies +0.13 Weak
52% neutral pass / 61 plays | 62% / 60
WSHH Special teams efficiency +0.07 Weak
WSH FG 83.3% / NET PUNT 44.2 | DAL 75.0% / 44.1
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